TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,586
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,586 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Over46c577.45$263 inWon+$314.245,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under43c533.34$227 inLost-$226.769,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed Under56c357.14$200 inLost-$2003953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over58c258.62$150 inWon+$108.6211464.9%74 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under44c244.97$107 inLost-$107.141,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x790d…9995backed Under52c200$104 inLost-$1041127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-56.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56c5…b3adbacked Over51c200$102 inWon+$981485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.4wins+0.31per pick54cpaid+110.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over40c138.54$55 inWon+$83.463,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Over56c100$56 inWon+$4461253.1%325 W · 287 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under36c95.9$35 inLost-$34.541,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a1…9467backed Over62c80.1$50 inWon+$30.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Over64c78.13$50 inWon+$28.1361056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under38c70.07$27 inLost-$26.634,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over55c59.16$33 inWon+$26.648,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over55c50.87$28 inWon+$22.8950347.9%241 W · 262 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9714…3014backed Over57c50$29 inWon+$21.512054.2%65 W · 55 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over55c40$22 inWon+$17.8762047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under45c36.36$17 inLost-$16.541,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over64c31.25$20 inWon+$11.252,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed5…472bbacked Under64c31.25$20 inLost-$20825%2 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-64.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Under48c30$14 inLost-$14.4814727.2%40 W · 107 L-21.7wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-43.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe843…cc39backed Under51c30$15 inLost-$15.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Over58c28.29$16 inWon+$11.9916447.6%78 W · 86 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba36…52d0backed Under40c25$10 inLost-$106855.9%38 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Under42c24.86$10 inLost-$10.443452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.