NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x331a83516bc56738d98691105bda1098330645854e3f03ee4e9b2b1a6a8324fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Timberwolves, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets | 53c | 1,656$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.32 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 1,122$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.92 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Timberwolves | 49c | 1,008$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Timberwolves | 48c | 890.12$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.67 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets | 51c | 625.31$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.65 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec1…5c2ebacked Nuggets | 52c | 554.98$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.39 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a9…be15backed Nuggets | 37c | 507.08$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.46 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Nuggets | 50c | 454.63$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.83 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Timberwolves | 48c | 416$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.68 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x333f…4da2backed Timberwolves | 46c | 349.95$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.98 | 147 | 38.8%57 W · 90 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c4…f726backed Nuggets | 34c | 316$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.59 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Nuggets | 51c | 277.95$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Timberwolves | 49c | 247.18$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…3c28backed Timberwolves | 35c | 150.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 116.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Nuggets | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Nuggets | 53c | 107.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Nuggets | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 553 | 16.5%91 W · 462 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Nuggets | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…1b11backed Nuggets | 30c | 67.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 51c | 62.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Nuggets | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves | 45c | 57.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…9ce5backed Nuggets | 54c | 54.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Nuggets | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Timberwolves | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…c1a6backed Nuggets | 54c | 47.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Timberwolves | 70c | 47.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Nuggets | 55c | 44.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Nuggets | 56c | 44.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Timberwolves | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Nuggets | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81da…421bbacked Nuggets | 54c | 38.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17fd…252cbacked Nuggets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…6de6backed Nuggets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…0d0abacked Nuggets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…eaf6backed Nuggets | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Nuggets | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…fd8ebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…c2d3backed Nuggets | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbab…583ebacked Nuggets | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f9…e537backed Nuggets | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Nuggets | 55c | 24.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…e267backed Nuggets | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…4083backed Timberwolves | 70c | 16.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneylinethis page
- Julius Randle: Assists Over 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.