NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbab0da1b3564fed660e7c993aa321d37fc7d93d6f624e58ef70e6302ef12fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets | 48c | 14,253$6,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,462.19 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets | 47c | 12,431$5,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,589.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Timberwolves | 53c | 8,795$4,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,655.62 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Timberwolves | 53c | 8,000$4,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,239.99 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Timberwolves | 53c | 7,327$3,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,883.07 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 50c | 4,868$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,427.44 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,204.99 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Nuggets | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079.97 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Nuggets | 47c | 3,440$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.29 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets | 47c | 3,292$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.26 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Timberwolves | 53c | 3,210$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.3 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 51c | 1,964$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves | 53c | 1,254$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.28 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Timberwolves | 52c | 1,195$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.59 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…2e93backed Nuggets | 48c | 1,146$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.83 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f78ebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 962$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.24 | 133 | 39.1%52 W · 81 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…64c5backed Timberwolves | 53c | 927.55$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.6 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Nuggets | 46c | 898.3$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.08 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Timberwolves | 52c | 888.46$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 53c | 532.04$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.34 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Nuggets | 47c | 364.44$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.94 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Timberwolves | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Nuggets | 49c | 213$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.63 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Nuggets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Timberwolves | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Timberwolves | 55c | 182.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Nuggets | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nuggets | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets | 47c | 101.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Nuggets | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Nuggets | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves | 52c | 93.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Nuggets | 49c | 89.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…a470backed Timberwolves | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0854…fb45backed Nuggets | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Timberwolves | 41c | 54.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nuggets | 47c | 51.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Nuggets | 60c | 47.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nuggets | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…e68cbacked Nuggets | 50c | 33.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 350 | 50.6%177 W · 173 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Nuggets | 49c | 32.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Nuggets | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nuggets | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Nuggets | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Timberwolves | 56c | 29.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…9a1dbacked Nuggets | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Timberwolves | 53c | 21.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…6c7ebacked Timberwolves | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Nuggets | 51c | 20.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)this page
- Julius Randle: Assists Over 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.