NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3aba993e7a78fa43ea3bdb5d371a1496f260ac772f6fc4f9f539c50ab3b140

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Timberwolvesof Nuggets, Timberwolves
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $36,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $38,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,672 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xab98…efd2backed Timberwolves	4c	5,455$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,236.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.96per pick	4cpaid	+2,400%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc449…2239backed Nuggets	80c	2,500$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves	55c	2,218$1,220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$998.1	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Timberwolves	69c	1,640$1,127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$513.22	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Nuggets	32c	1,510$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.2	163	35.6%58 W · 105 L	-12.2wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Nuggets	31c	1,498$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.42	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves	33c	1,276$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$851.74	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Timberwolves	69c	1,157$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.36	210	55.2%116 W · 94 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Nuggets	45c	1,118$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nuggets	31c	1,085$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.26	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Timberwolves	55c	1,003$552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.31	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Timberwolves	69c	888$613 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$274.76	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Nuggets	37c	777.47$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.45	279	39.8%111 W · 168 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6da…36cbbacked Timberwolves	55c	725.72$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$326.57	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves	63c	519.39$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.44	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Timberwolves	60c	500$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	126	55.6%70 W · 56 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Timberwolves	51c	499.99$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuggets	32c	489$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.83	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Timberwolves	67c	375.63$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.63	509	54.8%279 W · 230 L	+14.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves	60c	231.41$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.81	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Nuggets	37c	230.76$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.06	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Nuggets	42c	228.97$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.28	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a6…fa77backed Timberwolves	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+37.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Timberwolves	20c	199.99$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.99	76	47.4%36 W · 40 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Timberwolves	57c	181.39$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	747	48.5%362 W · 385 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Nuggets	38c	167.8$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.14	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Timberwolves	65c	159.99$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Nuggets	45c	157.34$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.2	277	47.7%132 W · 145 L	-20.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed Nuggets	43c	156.64$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.9	61	26.2%16 W · 45 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Timberwolves	68c	155$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.05	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Timberwolves	65c	151.02$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.21	701	53.5%375 W · 326 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Nuggets	33c	134$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.08	314	30.3%95 W · 219 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Timberwolves	48c	131.26$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.22	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Timberwolves	66c	123.56$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.11	83	55.4%46 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Timberwolves	66c	117$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.78	49	49%24 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Timberwolves	57c	116.51$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.1	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Nuggets	26c	115.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	455	42.4%193 W · 262 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa521…4599backed Timberwolves	66c	108$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.72	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+6.7wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Timberwolves	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.98	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe18c…37c1backed Nuggets	36c	100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Timberwolves	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+12.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x581b…0290backed Timberwolves	63c	99$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.63	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ee…7483backed Nuggets	35c	97.14$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x503d…cd16backed Nuggets	43c	93.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	100	44%44 W · 56 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Nuggets	26c	89$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.26	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets	51c	81.25$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.44	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Timberwolves	66c	79$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.86	93	60.2%56 W · 37 L	+10.4wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Timberwolves	65c	76.92$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.92	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Timberwolves	29c	70.42$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	136	52.2%71 W · 65 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Nuggets	26c	68.68$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	173	31.8%55 W · 118 L	-8.0wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Timberwolves	62c	63.77$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.53	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Nuggets	47c	61.2$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	535	39.6%212 W · 323 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…3e2bbacked Timberwolves	49c	60.75$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.72	61	50.8%31 W · 30 L	-4.6wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x552e…a856backed Nuggets	70c	60$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11b3…48b6backed Timberwolves	29c	58$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.18	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaed3…205bbacked Timberwolves	56c	55.24$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.24	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5384…7408backed Nuggets	39c	51.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	45.5%25 W · 30 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Timberwolves	55c	51.73$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.28	503	47.9%241 W · 262 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc91…fcabbacked Timberwolves	58c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.19per pick	56cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7f2…9b10backed Timberwolves	68c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Timberwolves	66c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17	96	60.4%58 W · 38 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf54a…e25dbacked Nuggets	43c	46.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	157	52.2%82 W · 75 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Timberwolves	66c	45.15$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.15	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…259dbacked Timberwolves	60c	45$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.94	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x971c…f72cbacked Nuggets	42c	42.78$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	152	53.3%81 W · 71 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc535…6047backed Timberwolves	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	138	34.1%47 W · 91 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Nuggets	36c	41.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	126	54%68 W · 58 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a63…2952backed Nuggets	36c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ca2…2635backed Nuggets	42c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	28	75%21 W · 7 L	+4.4wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3366…87aebacked Nuggets	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab0…8383backed Nuggets	37c	40$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd67a…304cbacked Nuggets	34c	37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36c9…3f9fbacked Nuggets	34c	36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	29	69%20 W · 9 L	+5.0wins	+0.17per pick	52cpaid	+31%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Nuggets	42c	33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95c4…a93bbacked Nuggets	34c	32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	+4.5wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+24%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed Timberwolves	68c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	246	45.9%113 W · 133 L	-13.1wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Nuggets	41c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	147	27.2%40 W · 107 L	-21.7wins	-0.15per pick	42cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x82f7…7496backed Nuggets	37c	29.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-4.1wins	-0.29per pick	43cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Timberwolves	66c	28.41$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	94	46.8%44 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x696d…6d8bbacked Nuggets	43c	27.9$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Timberwolves	55c	20.28$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.13	143	56.6%81 W · 62 L	+9.2wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc97e…e83dbacked Timberwolves	64c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.42per pick	59cpaid	+72.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x335f…f4afbacked Timberwolves	64c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1131…10c0backed Nuggets	80c	15.35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.28	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	78cpaid	-35%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)this page
Julius Randle: Assists Over 4.5Yes won
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
Timberwolves vs. NuggetsNuggets won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event