NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5979c824be1bea4aafa99a075c5a707419c3d7d430bd113b8f70876d8963328
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 57c | 4,444$2,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.92 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…767cbacked Under | 43c | 4,016$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Under | 31c | 2,700$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.99 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e6…f489backed Under | 32c | 2,266$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…b7febacked Over | 68c | 2,266$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Under | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 158 | 7%11 W · 147 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Over | 69c | 811.59$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.59 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 75c | 738.83$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.83 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 432.02$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Under | 5c | 431$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 54c | 405.1$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.04 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 69c | 400.22$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.07 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 43c | 356.27$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Over | 68c | 322.11$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe360…421cbacked Over | 61c | 319.97$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…6785backed Under | 63c | 290.08$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 25c | 260.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 67c | 257.71$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 27c | 242.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over | 73c | 194.97$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 53c | 158.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 69c | 152.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790d…9995backed Under | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c5…b3adbacked Over | 68c | 149.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Over | 72c | 138.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 30c | 125.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…d31cbacked Over | 46c | 87.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 43c | 72.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26aa…026cbacked Over | 42c | 71.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x181d…c7e8backed Over | 71c | 65.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…2635backed Under | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 43c | 51.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Under | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Over | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Over | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 342 | 46.8%160 W · 182 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…8a65backed Under | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 28c | 36.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 35.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 39c | 33.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d05…47a3backed Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Over | 70c | 29.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 74c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 69c | 25.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf494…1ec9backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…276fbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5this page
- Julius Randle: Assists Over 4.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.