NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8e60d2f16142b22443f7616efd936e33ee47536cd79685ec306b5280ecb9d0d

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 26, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,120
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,120 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	46c	4,196$1,917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,916.72	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Over	54c	3,739$2,034 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,704.71	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Over	53c	1,000$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470	591	44.5%263 W · 328 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Over	56c	892.86$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392.86	218	52.8%115 W · 103 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under	46c	613.09$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.02	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under	46c	401.25$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.58	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	53c	372.41$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.44	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under	47c	352$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.44	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Under	47c	256$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.1	90	50%45 W · 45 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	53c	220$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.4	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Under	53c	178.68$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	337	30.3%102 W · 235 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	44c	178.68$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.29	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Under	47c	173$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.7	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	53c	172$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.72	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Under	48c	152$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.96	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked Under	47c	147$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.37	73	61.6%45 W · 28 L	+9.6wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc49c…6dcabacked Under	48c	133$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.84	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Under	48c	124$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.52	93	60.2%56 W · 37 L	+10.4wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Under	47c	117.02$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	477	38.2%182 W · 295 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Under	46c	113$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.98	81	51.9%42 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Over	53c	109.43$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.43	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Under	46c	109$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.14	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68e0…a3a6backed Under	47c	105$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.35	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Under	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	141	27.7%39 W · 102 L	-16.4wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed Under	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Under	48c	99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.52	87	49.4%43 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Over	53c	98.11$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.11	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Under	45c	98$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	49	49%24 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Under	47c	97$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.59	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x581b…0290backed Under	48c	94$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.12	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d43…86e7backed Under	48c	83.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.14	54	50%27 W · 27 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ecd…b2c0backed Over	52c	73$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.04	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-5.5wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x72e4…0369backed Under	46c	69.14$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over	53c	61$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.66	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6014…5a58backed Over	52c	59$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.32	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under	47c	58$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.26	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed Under	48c	58$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf3e…390fbacked Over	52c	53$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.24	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa75d…1d45backed Under	48c	52.24$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	223	47.1%105 W · 118 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7483…96a6backed Over	52c	49$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.52	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over	53c	48$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.7	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab2e…8b4bbacked Over	52c	47$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.56	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…042fbacked Over	54c	42$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.4	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Under	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b5f…b793backed Over	55c	39$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.55	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe1…e560backed Over	53c	39$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.33	41	61%25 W · 16 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd253…14d9backed Over	52c	38$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.24	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Over	55c	37$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.65	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09db…7384backed Over	54c	37$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.02	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+5.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa4d0…9b74backed Over	52c	37$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.76	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Over	51c	36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.64	153	52.3%80 W · 73 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f6…c5d2backed Over	53c	36$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.92	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x859a…1ccebacked Over	52c	36$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.28	29	72.4%21 W · 8 L	+6.0wins	+0.21per pick	52cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	49c	34.47$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.58	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe91…4462backed Over	55c	34$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd43a…f530backed Over	54c	33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.18	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x373a…668abacked Over	52c	33$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.84	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-4.0wins	-0.13per pick	53cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over	51c	32.24$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.8	272	51.1%139 W · 133 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3517…9f8dbacked Over	52c	32$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.36	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x608b…6e88backed Over	52c	32$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.36	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…8137backed Over	55c	31$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.95	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f96…92e0backed Over	52c	31$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.88	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8358…956bbacked Over	52c	31$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.88	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb7…8745backed Over	55c	31$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.95	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Over	55c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f57…6d41backed Over	55c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e02…c5f2backed Over	53c	28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.16	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6dd4…9cebbacked Over	53c	26$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.22	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x080f…c226backed Over	53c	26$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.22	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	47c	25.03$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.71	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d10…e17cbacked Over	52c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…60e5backed Over	52c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d7…f2d1backed Over	53c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9a7…261bbacked Over	55c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf71c…488bbacked Over	54c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.5wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d6e…148bbacked Over	54c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaac…1045backed Over	54c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14c2…6070backed Over	54c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.66	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+5.1wins	+0.14per pick	51cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x315a…b24cbacked Over	53c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.34	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00c0…4523backed Over	53c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.4	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6061…1ff7backed Over	52c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	29	58.6%17 W · 12 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd1…0100backed Over	54c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.12	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…2f86backed Over	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	40	62.5%25 W · 15 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over	52c	19.31$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.27	938	49.7%466 W · 472 L	+36.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5this page
Julius Randle: Assists Over 4.5Yes won
Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Nuggets won
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Timberwolves won
Timberwolves vs. NuggetsNuggets won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Over won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 235.5Over won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event