TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Villanova Wildcats vs. Providence Friars

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Villanova Wildcatsof Villanova Wildcats, Providence Friars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$207,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$235,670

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,683 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Villanova Wildcats58c21,253$12,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,820.412,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Providence Friars44c16,975$7,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,468.8619950.3%100 W · 99 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Villanova Wildcats56c13,560$7,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,966.421149.3%104 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Providence Friars42c11,845$5,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,021.045,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Providence Friars42c11,489$4,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,858.3412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Villanova Wildcats58c9,718$5,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,079.421,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Villanova Wildcats59c9,437$5,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,870.2260548.9%296 W · 309 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Providence Friars42c8,245$3,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,503.531,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Providence Friars42c5,250$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2051850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Villanova Wildcats58c5,210$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,196.31560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Providence Friars31c4,954$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.525,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x259b…567dbacked Providence Friars42c4,649$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Villanova Wildcats59c4,517$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.051,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Providence Friars41c4,337$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.1784147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Providence Friars39c4,025$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.574,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3f…09e1backed Providence Friars40c3,928$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92e6…5c4fbacked Villanova Wildcats58c3,193$1,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.06475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+80.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Providence Friars41c3,160$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.4190645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9219…85cebacked Villanova Wildcats60c2,870$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Villanova Wildcats55c2,864$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.853455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Providence Friars9c2,511$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2252,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Providence Friars42c2,420$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.882,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Villanova Wildcats56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88074051.5%381 W · 359 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Villanova Wildcats56c1,717$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.1349747.5%236 W · 261 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Providence Friars20c1,603$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.621,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Providence Friars42c1,602$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.859845.9%45 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Providence Friars7c1,485$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2294036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0121…2fccbacked Villanova Wildcats58c1,456$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.52475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf43d…1e75backed Providence Friars7c1,422$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.856931.9%22 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Villanova Wildcats58c1,414$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.9512358.5%72 W · 51 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39d7…e896backed Providence Friars41c1,414$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Villanova Wildcats72c1,380$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.123551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea81…eeaebacked Providence Friars40c1,336$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.861,22727.8%341 W · 886 L-0.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d2…92c8backed Providence Friars20c1,250$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.134757.4%27 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+235.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3661…b27cbacked Villanova Wildcats59c1,200$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fff…d4b2backed Providence Friars41c1,200$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc64e…fd52backed Providence Friars3c1,161$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.563237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Villanova Wildcats59c1,145$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.8618147%85 W · 96 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8b…15babacked Providence Friars41c1,124$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Providence Friars39c1,108$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.361,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x659c…85bbbacked Villanova Wildcats73c1,096$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.921154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x281f…b7b5backed Villanova Wildcats60c1,058$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f1…b386backed Providence Friars42c1,048$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4404628.3%13 W · 33 L-7.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd10e…8404backed Villanova Wildcats58c1,034$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaf…1aaebacked Providence Friars42c1,034$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.28683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e76…771dbacked Providence Friars41c1,007$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Providence Friars19c968.91$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.772,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Providence Friars43c964.29$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.711,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Providence Friars8c958.92$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3114021.4%30 W · 110 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Villanova Wildcats59c929.42$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.0611439.5%45 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a99…cedcbacked Providence Friars41c900$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fdb…b290backed Providence Friars42c880$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Providence Friars43c870.72$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.479849%48 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa22b…177bbacked Providence Friars40c852$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Providence Friars37c852$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.0749746.5%231 W · 266 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…1b66backed Providence Friars41c848.75$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.521050%105 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Providence Friars44c842$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.4891848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec78…110cbacked Villanova Wildcats59c816$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Providence Friars39c801$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.635942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Providence Friars39c793.65$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.51,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Providence Friars41c758.64$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.252,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Villanova Wildcats59c745.76$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.769037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Providence Friars40c736$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.481453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Providence Friars42c713.65$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d6…1582backed Providence Friars42c710$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa114…55b7backed Villanova Wildcats58c699.99$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b12…c3c1backed Villanova Wildcats59c687$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Villanova Wildcats57c656.92$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.81,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed Villanova Wildcats72c645.03$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.3219057.4%109 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Providence Friars42c609.33$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.974152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Providence Friars39c600$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2321,48743%639 W · 848 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e64…8e3ebacked Villanova Wildcats59c598$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3493…47bcbacked Providence Friars12c521.11$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652313%3 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Providence Friars40c509.45$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.53,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c61…ae77backed Villanova Wildcats59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8289…2b2ebacked Villanova Wildcats57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2157058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Providence Friars41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b0…be57backed Villanova Wildcats60c492$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+60.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27de…6f8fbacked Villanova Wildcats58c479$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Providence Friars43c469.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20027045.2%122 W · 148 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Providence Friars43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40f…ae21backed Providence Friars41c461$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Providence Friars6c459.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.53,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Villanova Wildcats64c457.57$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.781,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Providence Friars42c437.6$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4189146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5d…2a82backed Providence Friars42c433$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea23…ab65backed Villanova Wildcats66c423.1$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.9580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf2a…0525backed Providence Friars42c416.5$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.93955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Villanova Wildcats61c410.08$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.0813350.4%67 W · 66 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0457…a43cbacked Villanova Wildcats59c407$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b7…63bbbacked Villanova Wildcats59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9161…622ebacked Providence Friars5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204522.2%10 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+51.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Providence Friars35c399.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14023028.3%65 W · 165 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Villanova Wildcats62c362$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5672248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8433…cc37backed Villanova Wildcats56c360.71$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064b…0996backed Villanova Wildcats60c360$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1444100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+64.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x788d…99bbbacked Providence Friars9c325.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.551947.4%9 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick25cpaid+120.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xc03c…98cabacked Villanova Wildcats59c320$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Villanova Wildcats63c317.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4645351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1052…53dabacked Providence Friars40c303.62$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.452835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.