TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deni Avdija: Points O/U 21.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,975

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,264 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x339a…1eaebacked No63c1,128$705 inWon+$423.051,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe630…5d81backed Yes39c1,034$403 inLost-$4031225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x128a…a1b0backed Yes44c675.97$300 inLost-$3005339.6%21 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No56c568.14$316 inWon+$251.921,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No57c380$215 inWon+$165.271449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No58c315$183 inWon+$132.390863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1752…941dbacked Yes43c232.56$100 inLost-$10050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2b…3377backed Yes41c188.57$78 inLost-$77.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-68.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d25…e38bbacked Yes27c163.2$44 inLost-$44.28650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b0…3ac2backed Yes41c152.23$63 inLost-$6320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes42c150.71$63 inLost-$62.6443543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x266b…205bbacked Yes40c100.18$40 inLost-$40.51145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe15f…93d7backed No59c90$53 inWon+$36.821672.2%156 W · 60 L+28.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+22.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0462…cddebacked Yes38c70.5$27 inLost-$26.79742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb50b…7a3ebacked Yes37c69.8$26 inLost-$25.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35aa…ba97backed Yes46c65.82$30 inLost-$3012257.4%70 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No60c60$36 inWon+$246451.6%33 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed No61c55$34 inWon+$21.2919050.5%96 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No61c50$31 inWon+$19.532866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3c5…d432backed Yes41c41.8$17 inLost-$17.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No58c40$23 inWon+$16.860267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed No61c39.93$24 inWon+$15.742642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked No62c30$19 inWon+$11.459141.8%247 W · 344 L-26.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No62c28$17 inWon+$10.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No61c20$12 inWon+$7.890357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50bb…da3abacked No75c20$15 inWon+$52466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed No62c17.73$11 inWon+$6.7440849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.