NFL · resolved market
Will Kyle Shanahan win NFL Coach of the Year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72ff1ee67287710e5975073bba115128b452c93abc83ce282b15a114d3529073
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,407$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 1c | 8,751$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 5,772$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 10c | 5,123$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.9 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,611$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…5df3backed Yes | 3c | 2,297$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Yes | 5c | 2,291$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 9c | 2,264$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.22 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 24c | 1,384$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.77 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,371$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,357$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.82 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked Yes | 9c | 1,159$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…58c0backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…61b5backed Yes | 7c | 718.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 4c | 595.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 64c | 528.32$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 516.71$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17dc…aff8backed Yes | 6c | 488.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 392.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Yes | 6c | 348.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked Yes | 39c | 329.42$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 5c | 318.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 30c | 309.55$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 243.12$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 195.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…498fbacked No | 72c | 139.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 75c | 62.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a6…8e49backed Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…260bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…448abacked Yes | 41c | 39.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9147backed Yes | 40c | 31.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyle Shanahan win NFL Coach of the Year?this page
- Will Andy Reid win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Ben Johnson win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Dan Campbell win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Demeco Ryans win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will John Harbaugh win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Liam Coen win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Matt LaFleur win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Mike Macdonald win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Mike Vrabel win NFL Coach of the Year?Yes won
- Will Pete Carroll win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Sean McDermott win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Sean Payton win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Shane Steichen win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Todd Bowles win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
- Will Zac Taylor win NFL Coach of the Year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.