TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Serie A · resolved market

AS Roma vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,740 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Serie A
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d30…a42dbacked Over52c53,387$27,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,631.932634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Under46c19,979$9,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,190.31425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Over54c19,448$10,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,946.082552%13 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Under48c12,584$6,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,040.293450%17 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd586…7c9bbacked Under48c8,073$3,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,875.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4907…f72abacked Under48c7,872$3,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,778.32450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under48c7,219$3,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,430.362,53845.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over54c6,146$3,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,839.8718923.8%45 W · 144 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under46c5,218$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.2840447.3%191 W · 213 L+0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea03…a5a3backed Over53c3,461$1,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,614.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+34.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under48c2,018$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.81533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-34.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Under48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Under47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.991747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under47c1,875$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.341954.7%229 W · 190 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under46c1,217$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.396942.3%410 W · 559 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under2c1,200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18306.7%2 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c1,050$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.2393252%485 W · 447 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Under48c1,009$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Under48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under46c999.99$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4606839.7%27 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3054…699bbacked Under48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-53%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over50c970$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4859054.4%49 W · 41 L+7.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x625e…4de3backed Under48c920.57$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b4…c2f1backed Over55c875.19$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.576937.7%26 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over56c858.79$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.871872.2%13 W · 5 L+5.1wins+0.28per pick44cpaid+56.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb68e…30cfbacked Under48c668.71$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Under48c645.87$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.024557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over74c606.72$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.561,98139.8%788 W · 1,193 L-7.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under46c558.93$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.932941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under44c537.72$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.5941144.3%182 W · 229 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under48c519.78$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.55754.4%31 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under48c462$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.764748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Over78c454.5$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.889576.8%73 W · 22 L+20.8wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+49.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Under47c412$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.642673.1%19 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under28c408.09$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9291043.3%394 W · 516 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under47c400.91$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1565254.1%353 W · 299 L+19.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under49c399.62$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9615244.1%67 W · 85 L-11.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under48c371.29$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.2219154.5%104 W · 87 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under48c371.29$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.229650%48 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under48c371.29$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.225162.7%32 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-3.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under48c367.61$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.2814752.4%77 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over53c366.72$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3613636.8%50 W · 86 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cef…d4debacked Over53c366.72$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3621650.5%109 W · 107 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Over53c319.05$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2511349.6%56 W · 57 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked Under46c293.96$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.221030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Over56c260.83$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.748965.2%58 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under48c252.35$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.12748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under47c234.47$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.943058.6%252 W · 178 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under48c217.78$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.858453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under48c217.78$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.857548%36 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Under48c217.78$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.855450%27 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under49c217.19$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.397546.7%35 W · 40 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed Under47c206$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f5…8314backed Under48c201.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.881338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.23per pick61cpaid-43.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe05d…b812backed Under48c201.81$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.87728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under48c201.17$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.884942.9%21 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over62c189.14$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8715459.7%92 W · 62 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under48c185.77$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.177163.4%45 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under48c185.77$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.177846.2%36 W · 42 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Under48c185.77$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.175170.6%36 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under48c185.53$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0519952.8%105 W · 94 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under48c185.53$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0511346.9%53 W · 60 L-9.6wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under48c185.53$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0514159.6%84 W · 57 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Over53c183.36$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.183040%12 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Under46c180$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.823353.6%125 W · 108 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a81…a86bbacked Over77c177.1$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.847262.5%45 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked Under46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…1639backed Under44c131.78$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.981338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…20bfbacked Over54c117.05$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.842250%11 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under48c100.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.445556.4%31 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1a…26c0backed Under48c100.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.443860.5%23 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8b9…46e4backed Under48c100.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.441070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under48c100.26$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4513653.7%73 W · 63 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Under47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf800…bdbabacked Under46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469045.6%41 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Under48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4813146.6%61 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Under46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466358.7%37 W · 26 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under47c99.97$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.993066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over50c97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.526747.2%126 W · 141 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over77c96.06$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.091540%6 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-45.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc95b…f819backed Under48c93.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.83837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab90…5793backed Over76c85$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.44271.4%30 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1703…1ab4backed Over75c80.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.032650%13 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Under48c78.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.781258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f62…0774backed Over53c74.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.15875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+25.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed Over55c70.76$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.841330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Under48c70.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.913571.4%25 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa426…540dbacked Under48c67.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x120d…5a76backed Under47c65.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under47c63.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9318125.4%46 W · 135 L-18.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-45.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under40c60.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3849137.5%184 W · 307 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed Under42c58.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1640%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over53c57.81$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1728445.4%129 W · 155 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over50c57.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.546347.6%30 W · 33 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over50c54.22$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.329561.1%58 W · 37 L+14.4wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+29.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over51c54.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.564555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b90…c258backed Over76c54.05$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.972969%20 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d9…6c60backed Over55c53.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.88955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024f…5857backed Over55c53.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.871752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72bd…d37abacked Over56c52.16$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.956366.7%42 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+25.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.