MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74b158c95da5120c3b1b62f47bbe0979bd5b4f8d8bc06d7c4c294d4139980a16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 24,247$13,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,153.6 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 12,166$5,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,596.19 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Texas Rangers | 47c | 12,000$5,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,580 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Texas Rangers | 11c | 1,367$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 1,186$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Texas Rangers | 58c | 1,180$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.89 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 18c | 777.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 78c | 577.23$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.76 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Francisco Giants | 23c | 538.81$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.27 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 478.27$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Texas Rangers | 47c | 460$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers | 46c | 423$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.31 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 308.87$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.63 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 295$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.65 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 238.17$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…3f3fbacked Texas Rangers | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 189.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…ebf0backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 172.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Texas Rangers | 56c | 133$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 124.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Texas Rangers | 47c | 113.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 23c | 110.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…7533backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed San Francisco Giants | 71c | 98.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 72.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Texas Rangers | 56c | 71.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 69.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…9bbabacked Texas Rangers | 67c | 68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers | 48c | 65.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Texas Rangers | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 58.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 51.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Texas Rangers | 25c | 45.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 38.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Texas Rangers | 46c | 34.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…9874backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 28.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 24.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed San Francisco Giants | 73c | 21.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.