AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754d2462627e56bebf3784eb96b05c428d950160bce74252d014acad5ec6f8ed

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $43,297
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,297 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over	10c	2,720$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,438	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	11c	1,979$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,762.65	1,409	44.5%627 W · 782 L	-6.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Over	34c	1,695$576 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,118.58	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d8…a9cebacked Over	18c	1,584$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,296.86	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+39%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	34c	1,569$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,028.89	1,012	33.2%336 W · 676 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over	8c	1,539$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,416.12	63	17.5%11 W · 52 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	11c	1,468$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,310.01	1,662	34.9%580 W · 1,082 L	-32.0wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95ac…3f7cbacked Over	35c	1,000$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$650	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a89…8e52backed Under	78c	949.09$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740.09	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	67cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under	66c	898.56$593 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$593.01	594	45.5%270 W · 324 L	-15.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	7c	745.56$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$693.37	773	36.4%281 W · 492 L	-10.3wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	65c	681.89$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.92	117	53%62 W · 55 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Over	5c	602.56$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$570.65	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+99.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	6c	534.48$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$501.11	611	43.7%267 W · 344 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under	2c	527.88$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	93	3.2%3 W · 90 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe56…593abacked Under	10c	518.33$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.83	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under	10c	510.73$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.07	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+150%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19ee…446cbacked Over	17c	459.46$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.11	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Over	34c	451.95$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.29	78	47.4%37 W · 41 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under	78c	421.64$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.88	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-7.9wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under	65c	395.52$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.09	48	52.1%25 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa93e…0a8cbacked Under	67c	381.49$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.28	79	54.4%43 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Under	25c	357.45$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.84	137	27%37 W · 100 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Over	18c	354.07$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.79	76	35.5%27 W · 49 L	-8.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	75c	304.75$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.38	746	44.8%334 W · 412 L	-7.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Over	33c	303.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.27	420	48.6%204 W · 216 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under	66c	295.72$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.18	240	52.9%127 W · 113 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over	38c	295.48$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.2	129	49.6%64 W · 65 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over	34c	283.44$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.41	121	39.7%48 W · 73 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…5ac3backed Under	80c	281.7$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.36	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf01…6e5bbacked Under	62c	278.97$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.96	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Under	80c	247$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.6	84	45.2%38 W · 46 L	-5.8wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under	63c	232.81$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.67	240	47.5%114 W · 126 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	65c	221.64$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.06	809	53.6%434 W · 375 L	+11.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Under	68c	196.16$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.39	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Under	27c	190.77$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.32	90	35.6%32 W · 58 L	+4.0wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Under	65c	190$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.5	53	66%35 W · 18 L	+5.4wins	+0.10per pick	56cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6368…d45ebacked Under	67c	181.4$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.53	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Over	38c	164.69$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.11	155	53.5%83 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under	53c	162.42$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.7	71	43.7%31 W · 40 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under	62c	160.04$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.23	850	48.4%411 W · 439 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f22…0fb4backed Over	19c	151.9$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.9	125	43.2%54 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	35c	151.39$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.4	1,220	49.8%607 W · 613 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f11…ce9fbacked Over	33c	149.25$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.3wins	+0.17per pick	44cpaid	+72%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Under	67c	146.3$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.02	116	36.2%42 W · 74 L	-5.7wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over	37c	130.78$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.68	144	31.9%46 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa21f…adddbacked Under	76c	128.88$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.59	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9857…a505backed Over	18c	107.64$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.63	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under	60c	103.2$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.67	212	50%106 W · 106 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under	72c	91.05$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.31	365	45.2%165 W · 200 L	-14.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1105…09d0backed Under	66c	91.03$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.08	76	60.5%46 W · 30 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	68cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1dc4…3479backed Under	68c	88.27$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.02	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-3.8wins	-0.54per pick	68cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	64c	88.07$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.37	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Over	18c	87.04$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.24	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over	66c	80.83$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.12	188	42.6%80 W · 108 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over	33c	76.37$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.2	698	51.1%357 W · 341 L	+6.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Over	27c	75.84$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.44	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb20…bea0backed Over	24c	65.79$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	6	100%6 W · 0 L	+3.6wins	+0.60per pick	40cpaid	+177.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked Over	80c	59.28$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.86	81	59.3%48 W · 33 L	+6.7wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a98…3f93backed Over	36c	58.76$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.61	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	34c	56.49$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.29	357	43.1%154 W · 203 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under	63c	55$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.65	298	55%164 W · 134 L	+9.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2d5…191abacked Over	29c	52.66$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.39	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x125c…f50abacked Over	39c	49.67$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.4	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	33c	45.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.35	557	51.5%287 W · 270 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc338…974ebacked Over	34c	42.37$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.96	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1956…1ef8backed Over	35c	41.19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.77	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Under	64c	40.83$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.13	159	49.1%78 W · 81 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79df…1661backed Over	35c	40.39$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.25	297	35.4%105 W · 192 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed5…2aa3backed Under	66c	39.9$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.46	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Under	66c	36.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.56	128	54.7%70 W · 58 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…e91cbacked Under	67c	36.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.51	49	63.3%31 W · 18 L	+6.3wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x46ce…91a6backed Under	70c	35.07$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	75cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Under	66c	29.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	100	49%49 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e83…04fbbacked Under	68c	28.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.62	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe169…87c9backed Under	65c	28.59$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9293…b5fdbacked Over	75c	27.59$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.01	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	59cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa3b…8568backed Under	66c	22.54$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+2.7wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under	64c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	154	44.8%69 W · 85 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d36…97f7backed Under	79c	16.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.79per pick	79cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9132…6607backed Under	75c	15.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under	75c	15.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…6f21backed Under	80c	13.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5this page
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Leeds United FC won
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)Leeds United FC won
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event