Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7555f572bcbacda1c33898b3ba3595710b0bea9db56758c9418f013b35f8d8f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 18c | 1,178$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.3 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 626.04$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 73c | 532$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.38 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 423.72$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.83 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 27c | 207.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 23c | 198.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 188.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 30c | 177.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 174.53$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 64c | 173.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 159.76$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 132.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 122.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 119.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 112.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 33c | 110.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 109.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…2a42backed Yes | 39c | 109.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 57c | 106.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 33c | 103.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 33c | 79.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 68.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 68.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 23c | 60.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 49c | 55.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 40c | 55.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 45c | 54.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 45.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 44.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 44.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…8dd8backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562c…8597backed Yes | 50c | 39.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 38.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed No | 56c | 37.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 68c | 36.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 38c | 32.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 33c | 31.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7208…ba4cbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 73c | 29.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 72c | 28.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 27.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 70c | 20.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 66c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 18.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 72c | 14.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.