Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb92eea92159a0381d5eadb4435be76e570e507bc0a37be85e90965e716faf81d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 73c | 798$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.3 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 669.35$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 79c | 382.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 9c | 363.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 354.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 64c | 259.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 27c | 252.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.07 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 28c | 225.19$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.98 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 184$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 76c | 173.84$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 169.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 16c | 138.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 138.56$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 11c | 128.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 118.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 116.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 25c | 113$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 110.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 108.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 107.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 80c | 105.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 24c | 103.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 77c | 101.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 101.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 34c | 93.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 23c | 87.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 85.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…6674backed Yes | 26c | 83.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 81.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 70c | 71.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed Yes | 29c | 65.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 72c | 64.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 24c | 64.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 23c | 61.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed Yes | 49c | 60.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 23c | 58.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 57.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 45.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 25c | 44.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 40.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 35c | 36.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 41c | 31.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 42c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…8dd8backed No | 78c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 22.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 54c | 22.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 18.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 72c | 18.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 78c | 17.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…701abacked Yes | 71c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 16.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 75c | 13.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.