TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

ATP Cincinnati - Rublev vs. Alcaraz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alcarazof Rublev, Alcaraz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$223,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$244,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,724 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ef4…412cbacked Rublev22c100,541$22,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,093.694436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Alcaraz78c50,000$39,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,0002152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Rublev14c22,510$3,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,197.6317833.1%59 W · 119 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Alcaraz78c18,979$14,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,153.7639144.2%173 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Alcaraz67c10,804$7,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,610.7848851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4e…2f7ebacked Alcaraz78c9,311$7,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Alcaraz78c8,576$6,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.921,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Alcaraz78c7,231$5,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.8215832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Rublev20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00066949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Rublev30c4,467$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.344548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Rublev16c3,810$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.3332141.1%132 W · 189 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb377…f621backed Rublev20c3,366$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.27825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Rublev10c3,042$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.214345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Alcaraz71c2,817$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.928443%122 W · 162 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Rublev20c2,650$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.089137.4%34 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Rublev20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf747…f687backed Alcaraz80c2,169$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.83253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Rublev23c1,979$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.825722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed Alcaraz80c1,681$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.283234.4%11 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Alcaraz78c1,503$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.7662742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Alcaraz66c1,187$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.6638348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe88e…a7d4backed Alcaraz68c1,171$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.421369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed Alcaraz80c1,147$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.472157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+48%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdc4…a880backed Rublev21c1,000$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.546633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Alcaraz77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23011652.6%61 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Rublev21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21025244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…6e98backed Alcaraz80c969$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.84843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Rublev17c905.18$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.412839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-39.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Alcaraz61c800$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31618338.8%71 W · 112 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Alcaraz79c745.31$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5259151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Rublev27c705.07$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2122629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Alcaraz80c566.64$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.338453.6%45 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Alcaraz79c560$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.65552.7%29 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Alcaraz78c531.24$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.3215957.2%91 W · 68 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Alcaraz72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Rublev21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063942.4%271 W · 368 L+1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff72…512bbacked Rublev21c474$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.546833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Rublev27c469.84$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.958555.3%47 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Rublev24c451.75$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9275547.8%361 W · 394 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rublev14c436.01$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x704a…7c42backed Rublev40c424.12$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Alcaraz79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8415452.6%81 W · 73 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5b8…da98backed Alcaraz76c350$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.65977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Rublev19c300$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5620431.4%64 W · 140 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf671…3dd7backed Alcaraz78c300$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658459.5%50 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32a7…3e01backed Alcaraz79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f47…120dbacked Alcaraz66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1025158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Rublev29c298.39$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0229553.2%157 W · 138 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Alcaraz59c283.89$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.6416445.7%75 W · 89 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91a7…cac6backed Alcaraz71c264.7$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.71070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc287…f30dbacked Alcaraz80c258.83$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.833253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Alcaraz80c252.5$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.538356.9%218 W · 165 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a6…1198backed Alcaraz80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecba…5fb4backed Alcaraz73c235$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.511457.9%66 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Alcaraz69c215$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.87521.3%16 W · 59 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-62.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Alcaraz66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6862952.1%328 W · 301 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d26…ccb8backed Alcaraz80c190$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3813762.8%86 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a41…069abacked Alcaraz78c175$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8af…4900backed Rublev20c170.36$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0717349.1%85 W · 88 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Alcaraz63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7373147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eba…1c4dbacked Rublev7c157.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Rublev37c132.84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4926045%117 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Alcaraz80c130$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Alcaraz72c120.84$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.046756.7%38 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefe8…e0f2backed Alcaraz59c120$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.22347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Rublev38c105.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Alcaraz71c100.45$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1316446.3%76 W · 88 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7552…0f46backed Alcaraz80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5a…725ebacked Alcaraz80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202176.2%16 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+31.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xad98…8733backed Rublev34c73.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254035%14 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Rublev37c72.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.915961%97 W · 62 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d17…b1fdbacked Alcaraz80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52454.2%13 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7ec…6c4fbacked Rublev16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e5…b313backed Alcaraz71c58.79$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.23366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39ea…f75bbacked Alcaraz72c58.32$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Alcaraz68c58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5625330%76 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f7…facbbacked Alcaraz53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.62638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad51…d436backed Rublev29c55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.87520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Alcaraz80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aea…c5f2backed Alcaraz68c48.43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.53256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Alcaraz78c45.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f01…4ca2backed Alcaraz71c39.44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4410956.9%62 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ff9…e494backed Rublev33c32.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8336040%144 W · 216 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…4e87backed Alcaraz75c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x295c…a424backed Alcaraz70c28.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.45475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40c…a528backed Alcaraz80c18.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed Alcaraz64c16.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0810372.8%75 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+19.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.