Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7699982ec09172af46376f50223a1845a0a8a003952f0f37368a4aa624fe2103

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,383
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,383 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbb0b…3790backed Over	4c	2,819$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.76	213	14.1%30 W · 183 L	+14.3wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+135.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Over	33c	2,500$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825	304	31.3%95 W · 209 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf83…3385backed Over	23c	2,174$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.61	315	45.4%143 W · 172 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over	31c	2,140$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	454	28%127 W · 327 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x264a…85ecbacked Under	72c	2,082$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$581.85	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under	70c	2,000$1,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$599.99	133	51.1%68 W · 65 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over	32c	1,730$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.66	217	47.9%104 W · 113 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Over	30c	1,587$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.12	292	32.9%96 W · 196 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	25c	1,556$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.69	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d85…197fbacked Under	51c	1,500$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$739.99	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	70c	1,457$1,015 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$441.41	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	36c	1,449$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.42	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	67c	871.04$581 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.03	1,560	43.8%684 W · 876 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc5…1e15backed Over	37c	704.54$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under	67c	652.43$436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216	765	51.6%395 W · 370 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed Under	67c	599.99$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198	374	51.6%193 W · 181 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Under	58c	577.4$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.51	444	35.4%157 W · 287 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfcd…36dfbacked Over	40c	565.98$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.39	145	56.6%82 W · 63 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6d1…286abacked Under	49c	458.98$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.08	174	47.1%82 W · 92 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	18c	374.11$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.33	740	34.1%252 W · 488 L	-36.1wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	67c	373$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.09	2,380	53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L	+76.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under	67c	372.92$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.62	2,411	53%1,278 W · 1,133 L	+75.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over	28c	359.99$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	246	49.2%121 W · 125 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb143…f649backed Under	63c	322.06$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.16	92	42.4%39 W · 53 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under	67c	309.51$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.63	848	44.3%376 W · 472 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65a…2e83backed Under	65c	307.69$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.69	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4571…a952backed Under	55c	293.56$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.1	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc338…974ebacked Over	35c	285.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	197	46.2%91 W · 106 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Over	37c	270$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	141	46.1%65 W · 76 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under	65c	260.7$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	1,873	48.4%906 W · 967 L	+14.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under	66c	253.9$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.16	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Under	80c	250$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	125	59.2%74 W · 51 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	70c	223.1$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.37	1,711	35.2%603 W · 1,108 L	-68.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under	66c	219.46$145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.24	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	65c	209.6$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.98	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed Over	31c	200$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	331	20.8%69 W · 262 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Under	68c	200$136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64	1,005	44.3%445 W · 560 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89d4…dcfcbacked Over	36c	196.72$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.82	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-42%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdae0…836abacked Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.8wins	+0.22per pick	47cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	65c	155.99$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.98	1,688	54.4%918 W · 770 L	+31.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x488c…a2dabacked Under	65c	153.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.85	153	64.7%99 W · 54 L	+13.6wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over	31c	150$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	1,616	51.2%827 W · 789 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea1…a3a6backed Over	36c	141.67$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x82c0…02fdbacked Over	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	74	24.3%18 W · 56 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	35c	127.74$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.53	2,819	44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L	-36.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7a…6c9abacked Over	24c	126.7$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Under	63c	100$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	200	50%100 W · 100 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa7…736ebacked Under	74c	100$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	227	46.3%105 W · 122 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xced4…5055backed Over	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	24.7%19 W · 58 L	+7.7wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x26ca…da6abacked Under	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	69	58%40 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	70c	98.57$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.57	414	51.4%213 W · 201 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	70c	98.57$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.57	355	49.9%177 W · 178 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df2…99f5backed Over	26c	96.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	160	40.6%65 W · 95 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Under	53c	94.32$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.33	248	40.3%100 W · 148 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Over	35c	85.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Under	64c	81.44$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.99	413	44.1%182 W · 231 L	-16.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under	68c	79.68$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	617	50.6%312 W · 305 L	+4.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	37c	76.75$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.26	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb93f…4160backed Under	66c	75.76$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.76	96	62.5%60 W · 36 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	39c	71.19$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Under	56c	69.8$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.71	384	39.8%153 W · 231 L	+4.9wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under	64c	66.53$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.95	203	30.5%62 W · 141 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over	38c	65.79$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	451	20.6%93 W · 358 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over	32c	62.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	24.4%19 W · 59 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	152	47.4%72 W · 80 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over	47c	60.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.33	637	45.4%289 W · 348 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over	38c	52.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	119	39.5%47 W · 72 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x562e…922bbacked Over	51c	47.06$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-4.0wins	-0.31per pick	54cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Under	65c	45.46$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.91	85	72.9%62 W · 23 L	+7.4wins	+0.09per pick	64cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	317	47.6%151 W · 166 L	+13.0wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c8e…cebfbacked Over	36c	43.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	59	23.7%14 W · 45 L	-7.7wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Over	37c	42$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	397	46.3%184 W · 213 L	-28.9wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Under	65c	40.75$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.16	315	50.8%160 W · 155 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Over	35c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	823	40.9%337 W · 486 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb253…26febacked Under	65c	39.77$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.77	135	48.1%65 W · 70 L	-9.2wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d70…d0a6backed Under	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under	75c	34.58$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.66	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under	65c	34.13$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	631	51.5%325 W · 306 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Over	47c	34.04$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	162	31.5%51 W · 111 L	-13.7wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6de2…d0e5backed Over	45c	32.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	-6.1wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Under	77c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.9	607	52.4%318 W · 289 L	+21.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa658…f93ebacked Under	69c	28.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	147	66%97 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	68cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under	70c	28.57$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.57	370	57.3%212 W · 158 L	+13.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Over	37c	27.39$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	858	51.2%439 W · 419 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc57…24aebacked Under	59c	25.42$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.42	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	-7.5wins	-0.12per pick	55cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Under	66c	24$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.16	166	59.6%99 W · 67 L	-9.8wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa402…d14bbacked Under	64c	23.44$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.39	146	53.4%78 W · 68 L	-11.6wins	-0.08per pick	61cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Under	67c	20.59$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.79	548	59.5%326 W · 222 L	-5.9wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Under	78c	20.12$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.44	187	64.2%120 W · 67 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under	62c	19$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.22	908	40.9%371 W · 537 L	-64.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under	80c	13.68$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.74	429	52%223 W · 206 L	-16.5wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 2.5this page
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 0.5Over won
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 1.5Under won
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 3.5Under won
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Guinea (-1.5)Northern Ireland won
Spread: Northern Ireland (-1.5)Guinea won
Spread: Northern Ireland (-2.5)Guinea won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event