TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Dubai Tennis Championships: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Denis Shapovalov

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bustaof Busta, Shapovalov
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$257,057
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$285,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $257,057 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83d2…d196backed Busta33c25,000$8,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,769.4610650%53 W · 53 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5555…d1c7backed Shapovalov57c20,811$11,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,905.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Shapovalov42c19,614$8,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,333.361,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Busta66c18,557$12,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,305.62,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Shapovalov67c16,473$11,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,067.5976146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Busta62c9,347$5,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,567.958,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Busta59c8,086$4,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.056,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Busta63c7,679$4,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.752,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Shapovalov9c7,652$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.792,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Shapovalov67c7,332$4,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,912.4516242%68 W · 94 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Busta66c7,077$4,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,425.567,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Shapovalov28c6,000$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.392,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Busta33c5,500$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,68512147.1%57 W · 64 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0457…4403backed Shapovalov39c5,499$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,139.836829.4%20 W · 48 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Busta47c5,151$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,730.4711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Busta51c4,668$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,269.9981349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300c…7708backed Shapovalov16c4,626$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.352142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+27.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Busta32c4,062$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,762.4820847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9963…32e4backed Shapovalov67c3,439$2,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.753036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Shapovalov34c3,254$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.81,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Shapovalov11c3,074$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.7455646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Shapovalov37c2,606$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.919134%65 W · 126 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xade0…e568backed Busta53c2,602$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.656344.4%28 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed Shapovalov67c2,499$1,674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.339452.1%49 W · 45 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35ea…99bcbacked Shapovalov53c2,478$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.0924060.8%146 W · 94 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Shapovalov48c2,080$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.422553.8%121 W · 104 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef2…ee9abacked Busta34c1,851$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+111.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82aa…6bacbacked Shapovalov66c1,850$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Shapovalov69c1,511$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.8566949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Busta34c1,458$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.331,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Busta69c1,440$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.944163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Busta49c1,338$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6836,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b7…00a0backed Shapovalov39c1,184$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.241323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.31per pick54cpaid-53.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Shapovalov45c1,129$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50813439.6%53 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf337…609abacked Shapovalov4c1,083$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.29016.7%15 W · 75 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Busta34c1,077$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.8810340.8%42 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Busta33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67022449.6%111 W · 113 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Busta34c1,000$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e0…0d61backed Busta25c1,000$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7461952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.23per pick30cpaid+75.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2073…385bbacked Busta35c999.96$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.058042.5%34 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Busta50c903.08$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.5447057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc3…9d67backed Shapovalov33c897.88$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30039431%122 W · 272 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Shapovalov68c882.35$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60078152.8%412 W · 369 L+21.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e31…5e8ebacked Shapovalov67c834.76$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.6713450.7%68 W · 66 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2590…e38ebacked Busta13c800$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7002227.3%6 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick8cpaid+199.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Shapovalov43c799.78$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.920748.3%100 W · 107 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Shapovalov42c707.6$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30037854%204 W · 174 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0b…17c3backed Busta13c700$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6082045%9 W · 11 L+6.5wins+0.32per pick13cpaid+273.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Shapovalov31c694.12$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2121,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Busta63c691.08$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.452,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Shapovalov8c626.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015117.9%27 W · 124 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Busta71c622.78$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.492,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd12…5503backed Busta23c600$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4641952.6%10 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.27per pick26cpaid+114.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8d94…593ebacked Busta23c600$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4622458.3%14 W · 10 L+7.9wins+0.33per pick25cpaid+127.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Shapovalov67c600$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39946649.8%232 W · 234 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbb…8205backed Busta23c600$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4622951.7%15 W · 14 L+7.4wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+93.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Shapovalov67c567$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.8981047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Shapovalov18c565.05$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10418439.1%72 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Busta34c550$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36346553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Busta45c539.32$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.636,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Busta45c533.38$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.194,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Shapovalov44c519$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.299044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Shapovalov43c502$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.753644.8%240 W · 296 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Shapovalov33c500$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16345457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Shapovalov35c488.11$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.6338739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Shapovalov28c471.49$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.632,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Shapovalov65c454.54$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.4520542.4%87 W · 118 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4781…336dbacked Busta43c429.64$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.6426462.1%164 W · 100 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Shapovalov31c410$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5558753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9e…7505backed Shapovalov18c406.96$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7513052.3%68 W · 62 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd205…e7fbbacked Shapovalov12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4831039.4%122 W · 188 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x359f…fa80backed Busta8c400$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3682334.8%8 W · 15 L+6.7wins+0.29per pick6cpaid+304.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Shapovalov41c387.67$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15913356.4%75 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ceb…68e3backed Shapovalov67c373.13$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508056.3%45 W · 35 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Shapovalov41c368.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010743%46 W · 61 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5739…e4dcbacked Shapovalov69c362.32$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Shapovalov23c355.42$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8188446.8%414 W · 470 L+3.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97a0…da35backed Shapovalov17c347.69$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4147946.3%222 W · 257 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…7a8ebacked Shapovalov49c345.59$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.34425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57c3…3201backed Shapovalov67c342.15$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.2418957.7%109 W · 80 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Shapovalov30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Shapovalov30c317$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.14,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Shapovalov45c315$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.171,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe795…d019backed Busta34c313.59$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.978850%44 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Shapovalov48c312.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15062534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Shapovalov66c304.9$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.221,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x441d…191bbacked Busta12c300$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641361.5%8 W · 5 L+5.9wins+0.46per pick16cpaid+344.6%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x31c8…f2d8backed Shapovalov50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507632.9%25 W · 51 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1816…06e9backed Shapovalov30c299.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Shapovalov67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Shapovalov67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Shapovalov67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20068350.1%342 W · 341 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Shapovalov67c298.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20059165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Shapovalov8c295.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7330241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea6…d837backed Busta12c270$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.70per pick14cpaid+691.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x89fd…da5dbacked Shapovalov44c254.55$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1128845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Busta55c250$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7873745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf303…7ee6backed Shapovalov69c249.88$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4213066.9%87 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Shapovalov5c248.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.835113.7%7 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Busta70c237.14$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1430750.5%155 W · 152 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.