Fifa International · resolved market
Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77fb11d2374ddf8260c244b2f3aaa579fc75463998822bec81f9c5ea83babfa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf17a…fa3abacked No | 47c | 3,564$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.23 | 162 | 60.5%98 W · 64 L | +22.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,300$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b8…3f4ebacked Yes | 53c | 1,250$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.5 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 22c | 581.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…0cdebacked No | 51c | 330.08$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 48c | 256.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Yes | 52c | 249.69$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb0…408cbacked No | 7c | 203.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 572 | 52.4%300 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 47c | 149.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1501…783fbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked Yes | 50c | 97.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 177 | 36.7%65 W · 112 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 52c | 83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…23b3backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe357…50cfbacked Yes | 54c | 55.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +18.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…9076backed Yes | 55c | 54.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…ba39backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…08b7backed Yes | 51c | 48.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 99 | 34.3%34 W · 65 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…97b7backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…23b2backed Yes | 50c | 28.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…7056backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked No | 43c | 25.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 93. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ shotsthis page
- Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shotsYes won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shotsYes won
- Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on targetNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ assistsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ goalsYes won
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ shotsYes won
- Anthony Gordon: 2+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 2+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 2+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 3+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 3+ shots on targetNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 4+ shotsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ assistsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ goalsNo won
- Declan Rice: 1+ shotsYes won
- Declan Rice: 2+ goalsNo won
- Declan Rice: 2+ shotsNo won
- Eberechi Eze: 1+ goalsNo won
- Eberechi Eze: 2+ goalsNo won
- Elliot Anderson: 2+ shotsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ assistsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsYes won
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ shotsYes won
- Enzo Fernández: 2+ shotsYes won
- Enzo Fernández: 3+ shotsYes won
- Exequiel Palacios: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goalsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assistsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ shotsYes won
- Harry Kane: 2+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ shotsNo won
- Harry Kane: 3+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 3+ shotsNo won
- Harry Kane: 4+ shotsNo won
- Jordan Pickford: 4+ savesNo won
- Jordan Pickford: 5+ savesNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ shotsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ shotsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 3+ shotsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 4+ shotsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ shotsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.