TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Centurion: Giles Hussey vs Edward Winter

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Giles Husseyof Giles Hussey, Edward Winter
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$170,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$188,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,771 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a67…e403backed Edward Winter53c44,035$23,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,293.9511554.8%63 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Giles Hussey56c10,353$5,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,579.168,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Giles Hussey47c8,236$3,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,372.333,71145.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ef…372cbacked Edward Winter15c8,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.75520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed Giles Hussey52c5,063$2,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,428.533948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Giles Hussey48c4,590$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,372.661,22953.1%653 W · 576 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Edward Winter14c4,580$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.6111,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Edward Winter51c4,103$2,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,089.761,68350.6%851 W · 832 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Giles Hussey48c4,000$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,09027944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc827…c066backed Edward Winter54c3,544$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.942860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Edward Winter7c3,102$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.179,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Giles Hussey47c2,840$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.8658745.7%268 W · 319 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Giles Hussey47c2,647$1,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.913,72642.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L-48.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Giles Hussey48c2,400$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.61,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a89…df4bbacked Edward Winter51c2,193$1,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.4714657.5%84 W · 62 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed Giles Hussey49c2,027$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.0510339.8%41 W · 62 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+34.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Giles Hussey47c1,749$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.711,88344.8%843 W · 1,040 L+36.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Giles Hussey72c1,392$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.0563556.7%360 W · 275 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Giles Hussey47c1,230$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.142,52138.4%969 W · 1,552 L+93.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Giles Hussey47c1,170$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.211,88145.7%860 W · 1,021 L+51.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Giles Hussey61c1,104$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.166,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Edward Winter4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402,09944.5%935 W · 1,164 L-51.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa18d…9b51backed Giles Hussey47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3e…ea35backed Giles Hussey47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5302661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe84a…02febacked Edward Winter51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Giles Hussey47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f1…b417backed Giles Hussey47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5304440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01fa…cea7backed Edward Winter25c934.04$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.2332935.6%117 W · 212 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Edward Winter37c904$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.244,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Giles Hussey71c816.83$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.191,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Edward Winter53c800$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4249,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74bd…d371backed Edward Winter14c797.13$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4942125.7%108 W · 313 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Giles Hussey47c779.6$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.3457842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Edward Winter24c772.6$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.656,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb1…96e1backed Edward Winter20c651.19$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.593321.2%7 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-37.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Giles Hussey55c617.42$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.421,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd7c…0918backed Edward Winter18c594.02$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7538…6ca6backed Edward Winter55c566.66$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.22948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab0…b46abacked Giles Hussey49c563.27$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.2723735%83 W · 154 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Giles Hussey47c544.31$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.4869051.2%353 W · 337 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Edward Winter51c499.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25552644.3%233 W · 293 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Edward Winter34c480.44$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3585348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2de6…fb10backed Edward Winter52c448.08$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23346255.8%258 W · 204 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2542…7821backed Giles Hussey70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5720749.8%103 W · 104 L-13.5wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Giles Hussey48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.821,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Edward Winter51c403.98$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.034050%20 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Edward Winter53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2124,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Edward Winter52c391.38$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20468139.1%266 W · 415 L-30.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfac1…3176backed Edward Winter53c377.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004139%16 W · 25 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1aa…9359backed Edward Winter16c374.88$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9820535.1%72 W · 133 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Giles Hussey80c371.25$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.251,05340.9%431 W · 622 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Edward Winter20c354.29$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.594,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Giles Hussey75c321.29$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.665,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Edward Winter46c321$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.764,65048.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L+31.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6844…7633backed Edward Winter53c320.75$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010540%42 W · 63 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Giles Hussey47c320$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.681047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Giles Hussey47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15947854.8%262 W · 216 L+25.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26eb…c940backed Edward Winter10c299.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Giles Hussey46c299$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.177,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa4…8968backed Giles Hussey49c297.96$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.963565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Giles Hussey71c290.37$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.616749.3%33 W · 34 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Giles Hussey73c272.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8523159.3%137 W · 94 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Edward Winter16c261.03$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.872,83947.2%1,340 W · 1,499 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf052…275abacked Edward Winter53c235.85$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b6…1f3fbacked Giles Hussey49c235$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Giles Hussey46c217.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.387,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Edward Winter32c211.81$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.118,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Giles Hussey48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3373350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcf…7ddfbacked Giles Hussey48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3311158.6%65 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6afc…5d32backed Giles Hussey48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.334864.6%31 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Edward Winter13c207.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.833119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6be…a9a7backed Edward Winter53c205.62$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9813441.8%56 W · 78 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dab…e5c0backed Edward Winter16c204.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0116028.8%46 W · 114 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20b4…bfa2backed Giles Hussey50c201.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2833540.9%137 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2363…a20dbacked Edward Winter50c200.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011028.2%31 W · 79 L-9.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked Giles Hussey47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10618652.7%98 W · 88 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Giles Hussey47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10653241.5%221 W · 311 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Edward Winter10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2033647.3%159 W · 177 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4c0…22ebbacked Giles Hussey56c199.98$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9940527.2%110 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca85…7453backed Giles Hussey51c199.25$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6315440.9%63 W · 91 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Giles Hussey51c197$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.482,08952.2%1,090 W · 999 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Giles Hussey50c180$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.41,54249.2%759 W · 783 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…73bfbacked Edward Winter53c178.58$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick60cpaid-63.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Edward Winter46c175$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.565346.4%303 W · 350 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c2e…f1c7backed Giles Hussey51c168.63$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.6312754.3%69 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Edward Winter23c165.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2934847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x660b…9852backed Edward Winter14c161.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.665326.4%14 W · 39 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Edward Winter32c152.26$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.231,77252.1%923 W · 849 L-1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Giles Hussey66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4380153.1%425 W · 376 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d7…2968backed Edward Winter17c148.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.464415.9%7 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Edward Winter26c148.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.082,06946.7%966 W · 1,103 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x823d…8091backed Giles Hussey72c139.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.582250%11 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d2…a67dbacked Giles Hussey73c136.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.263655.6%20 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a59…ba82backed Giles Hussey74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.143759.5%22 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Giles Hussey48c135$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.742,27542.7%972 W · 1,303 L+33.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb4f…7d02backed Edward Winter15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Edward Winter47c130$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2886647.9%415 W · 451 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20bf…2be9backed Giles Hussey48c125.31$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3114942.3%63 W · 86 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Giles Hussey47c120$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4650351.5%259 W · 244 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Edward Winter46c120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.292138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.