TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Red Sox

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Orioles, Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$562,467
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$572,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $562,467 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18d2…81e0backed Red Sox56c150,000$84,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,0001540%6 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd32…33c4backed Red Sox56c91,127$50,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,665.661421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.4wins-0.31per pick53cpaid-66%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Orioles44c85,488$37,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,873.279749.5%48 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+94.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Orioles44c74,000$32,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,44035854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Orioles44c46,912$20,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,036.1517351.4%89 W · 84 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Orioles44c30,000$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,80041850%209 W · 209 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf980…6528backed Orioles45c24,983$11,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,790.9411746.2%54 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Red Sox57c20,668$11,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,781.0127948.4%135 W · 144 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Red Sox55c18,183$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000.4424551.8%127 W · 118 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles44c13,589$5,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,627.081,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Orioles43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,70024553.5%131 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…77bfbacked Orioles46c9,964$4,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,401.915553.5%83 W · 72 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Orioles43c9,000$3,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,13023752.7%125 W · 112 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Red Sox36c7,823$2,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,827.959,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles44c7,470$3,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,192.731,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles44c5,165$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,895.742,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3339…48a5backed Red Sox60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Red Sox57c4,563$2,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60128447.5%135 W · 149 L-20.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf18e…014abacked Red Sox63c4,333$2,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,725.57633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Orioles41c4,174$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,461.2586751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Red Sox50c3,926$1,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,948.281,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67a5…9996backed Red Sox4c3,700$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.05504%2 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Red Sox14c3,695$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Red Sox57c3,513$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.6721356.3%120 W · 93 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox19c3,486$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.222,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f93…e313backed Red Sox55c2,727$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50015543.2%67 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Red Sox10c2,644$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26420523.4%48 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Orioles70c2,288$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.289759.8%58 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Orioles57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86025550.6%129 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Orioles44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12026453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Red Sox46c1,963$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.2297950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Red Sox54c1,781$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.0668656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Orioles41c1,333$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.3331248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Red Sox55c1,206$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.5239041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfaae…8a95backed Red Sox54c999.14$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.542166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e9…0501backed Orioles46c980$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.23046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Red Sox55c899.94$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.9788549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Red Sox11c600$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Red Sox45c551.62$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.2324844%109 W · 139 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Red Sox56c551.41$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.7932832.3%106 W · 222 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Orioles63c547.48$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.534,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f2…d0e3backed Orioles56c503.93$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.3714951.7%77 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Red Sox47c400.6$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18725835.3%91 W · 167 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Red Sox56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Red Sox57c350.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023852.9%126 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Red Sox12c333.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012624.6%31 W · 95 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Red Sox55c322.73$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.514150.4%71 W · 70 L-12.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Red Sox35c316.4$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6863942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Red Sox57c312.73$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17921853.2%116 W · 102 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Red Sox11c303.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3741643.8%182 W · 234 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Red Sox54c299.99$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.997650%38 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Orioles54c295.84$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.421,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Orioles44c280$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.873352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Red Sox61c250$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.540548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Red Sox60c200.42$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2511058.2%64 W · 46 L-0.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…73e6backed Red Sox55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11014539.3%57 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Orioles44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11233852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ca5…52a2backed Orioles45c199.13$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb58d…818ebacked Red Sox6c199$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.184146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Sox56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5695…f8edbacked Red Sox56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006637.9%25 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox57c175.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Orioles44c167.45$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9476456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Red Sox12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x399d…01dabacked Red Sox52c161.82$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.111757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b0e…5b17backed Red Sox55c152.73$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf094…6fd5backed Red Sox60c134.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803650%18 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf18…126cbacked Orioles79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1470…83bdbacked Red Sox54c124.83$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Red Sox54c121.21$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.455,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b5…dd2dbacked Red Sox60c116.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.05560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e7e…54ddbacked Orioles46c110.87$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.871947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Orioles46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Orioles45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5593240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed Red Sox52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220448%98 W · 106 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Orioles45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5524250.8%123 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf292…a7d0backed Orioles45c99.15$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+73.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Red Sox55c96.1$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8654048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Red Sox23c89.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.458139.5%32 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Red Sox57c87.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5074356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05be…d651backed Orioles46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9619849%97 W · 101 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43fd…021fbacked Red Sox54c85.96$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.422941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2354…20d0backed Red Sox35c85.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304043.5%14 W · 390 L-19.4wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54f5…d9c7backed Red Sox56c84.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.251625%4 W · 12 L-5.1wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-55.7%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Orioles50c73.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.541,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Red Sox56c71.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0254441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeac7…fec6backed Red Sox56c70$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399150.5%46 W · 45 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc44a…8f04backed Red Sox57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick62cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76b5…c1cebacked Orioles69c67.67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.989157.1%52 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Orioles47c65.63$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0443250.7%219 W · 213 L+10.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b03…5be3backed Red Sox57c61.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9228…e41abacked Orioles39c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.617732.8%58 W · 119 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Orioles46c58.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.861,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad3…a04ebacked Red Sox57c58.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.33560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Orioles42c50.48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2680680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Red Sox25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.538741.1%159 W · 228 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x575e…5b86backed Orioles48c44.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.924852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f19…72d9backed Orioles44c44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6441649%204 W · 212 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Red Sox57c43.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2594455.3%522 W · 422 L-2.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb00…320fbacked Red Sox55c43.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+60.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.