CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ce406b46bf164abad804a5676e873bd8b6d225cf3659492ea07e72ba43a9557
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liquidof Liquid, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27c5…6d61backed Liquid | 41c | 5,210$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,083.98 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked NIP | 42c | 5,004$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,114.11 | 1,263 | 46.9%592 W · 671 L | +18.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334e…26f1backed NIP | 60c | 3,359$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed NIP | 78c | 2,294$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.7 | 553 | 43.2%239 W · 314 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb0…d25bbacked Liquid | 54c | 1,930$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.34 | 271 | 33.2%90 W · 181 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked NIP | 52c | 1,861$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.43 | 1,619 | 45.5%737 W · 882 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…76c3backed NIP | 55c | 902.42$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 113 | 61.1%69 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Liquid | 33c | 808.53$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.78 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed NIP | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,283 | 22%282 W · 1,001 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Liquid | 42c | 800$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 2,092 | 41.6%871 W · 1,221 L | -50.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…6f58backed Liquid | 69c | 723.19$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Liquid | 51c | 722$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.71 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…19bbbacked NIP | 71c | 705.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed NIP | 75c | 600$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda32…04a1backed Liquid | 40c | 599.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 314 | 44.9%141 W · 173 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Liquid | 32c | 544.48$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.74 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed NIP | 56c | 538.81$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.73 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked NIP | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 180 | 40.6%73 W · 107 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…9e22backed Liquid | 29c | 475.07$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.07 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92d…e560backed NIP | 41c | 400$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 586 | 51%299 W · 287 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed NIP | 56c | 357.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…556cbacked Liquid | 54c | 350$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 323 | 52%168 W · 155 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed NIP | 56c | 308.53$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.78 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…1496backed Liquid | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…e741backed NIP | 65c | 276.2$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed NIP | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 602 | 48.7%293 W · 309 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Liquid | 38c | 239.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.47 | 151 | 62.3%94 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed NIP | 24c | 233.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 291 | 28.5%83 W · 208 L | -30.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Liquid | 38c | 200$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Liquid | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 182 | 50%91 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Liquid | 43c | 193.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…3332backed Liquid | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked NIP | 32c | 174.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed NIP | 59c | 165$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.35 | 500 | 43%215 W · 285 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked NIP | 9c | 162$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 161 | 46%74 W · 87 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed NIP | 72c | 137.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Liquid | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Liquid | 47c | 117.61$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5541…f1e3backed Liquid | 48c | 103.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked NIP | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked NIP | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…be45backed Liquid | 55c | 90.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed NIP | 37c | 86.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…04bcbacked Liquid | 34c | 79.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ac…acdcbacked Liquid | 28c | 71.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Liquid | 54c | 69.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…e52cbacked NIP | 39c | 66.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed NIP | 77c | 64.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 374 | 45.7%171 W · 203 L | -29.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4c…77bdbacked NIP | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NIP | 59c | 51.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 5,580 | 47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L | +47.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked NIP | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Liquid | 42c | 39.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 826 | 46.2%382 W · 444 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed NIP | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa886…822bbacked NIP | 54c | 34.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a78…c541backed NIP | 48c | 30.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…a2b3backed NIP | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -5.0wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed NIP | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9e…f22bbacked NIP | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed NIP | 48c | 28.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 273 | 48.4%132 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Liquid | 63c | 23.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked NIP | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 117 | 47%55 W · 62 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…3f49backed NIP | 70c | 21.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-InLiquid won
- Counter-Strike: Liquid vs NIP - Map 2 WinnerLiquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.