Champions League · resolved market
Will Serhou Guirassy be the top Champions League scorer?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d38335b8e52f05f4bf2d5e098c879afd29681fc6b65432e220374d16029fab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 12c | 10,481$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.57 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…05edbacked No | 64c | 8,641$5,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,110.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc33…d2f0backed Yes | 7c | 7,844$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04c7…af7fbacked Yes | 80c | 7,507$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Yes | 24c | 6,366$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.83 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 31c | 4,612$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.07 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,091$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 6c | 3,916$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…cdaabacked Yes | 25c | 3,570$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.41 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,209$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.54 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed No | 79c | 2,541$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 19c | 2,502$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.01 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5083…f2dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,992$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 33c | 1,886$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 22c | 1,709$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,682$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf892…7f58backed Yes | 44c | 1,662$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +306.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…2525backed Yes | 12c | 924.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 13c | 865.36$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked No | 70c | 830.42$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 685.89$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.2 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 50c | 657.97$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.65 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 31c | 621.66$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 585.4$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.98 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 40c | 581.25$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.69 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 15c | 534.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…df01backed Yes | 9c | 520.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed No | 77c | 516$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed Yes | 25c | 470$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 63c | 433$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.07 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 25c | 423.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff5…ae71backed Yes | 28c | 361.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155a…f515backed Yes | 7c | 322$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 42c | 250$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked No | 72c | 216.89$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 37c | 214.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 24c | 157.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 79c | 147$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 64c | 126$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 51c | 116$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 69c | 107.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…a550backed Yes | 70c | 107.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…2a22backed No | 57c | 105$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…6278backed Yes | 12c | 101.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 32c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 23c | 93.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 66c | 88.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…8322backed No | 58c | 80.27$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b9…0313backed No | 79c | 75.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…994fbacked Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…9c11backed Yes | 32c | 55.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b9…fb44backed No | 70c | 48.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…05d6backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb825…7aa8backed Yes | 46c | 36.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…c908backed Yes | 41c | 33.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…a6d0backed Yes | 46c | 32.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…2c74backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x538f…b40ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Serhou Guirassy be the top Champions League scorer?this page
- Will Antoine Griezmann be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Bukayo Saka be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Evangelos Pavlidis be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Florian Wirtz be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Harry Kane be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Jamie Bynoe-Gittens be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Jose Vinicius Junior be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Jude Bellingham be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Julian Alvarez be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Michael Olise be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Mohamed Salah be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Ousmane Dembele be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Raphinha be the top Champions League scorer?Yes won
- Will Robert Lewandowski be the top Champions League scorer?No won
- Will Rodrygo be the top Champions League scorer?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.