TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spiritof MOUZ, Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$872,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,059,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $872,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 547 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5966…f804backed Spirit71c64,989$46,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,846.693857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed MOUZ29c45,000$13,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,049.913244.7%59 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Spirit70c38,985$27,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,695.4922354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed MOUZ29c30,938$8,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,957.1715947.8%76 W · 83 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Spirit70c30,000$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,00014050.7%71 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed MOUZ32c30,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,599.9210551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Spirit69c25,394$17,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,891.746464.1%41 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked MOUZ32c25,000$8,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,049.9716245.1%73 W · 89 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed MOUZ30c22,120$6,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,636.097454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x733b…7260backed Spirit70c21,429$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,428.572259.1%13 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick72cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed MOUZ31c20,079$6,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,226.1371645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Spirit70c20,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.9938358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked MOUZ33c20,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,599.9875652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Spirit69c19,913$13,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,173.0872453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked MOUZ26c19,334$4,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,936.475532.7%18 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed MOUZ18c15,107$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.1742142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Spirit70c15,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,500.0150054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked Spirit67c14,925$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,925.3725751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed MOUZ30c14,300$4,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,29023848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked MOUZ30c12,135$3,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,658.585,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed MOUZ11c11,107$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.6618624.2%45 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked MOUZ31c10,752$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,33347147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked MOUZ33c10,666$3,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,519.8559839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed MOUZ32c10,414$3,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,292.4778639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed MOUZ29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,90037157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f4…3eacbacked MOUZ2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed MOUZ29c10,000$2,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,874.9767041.8%280 W · 390 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked MOUZ30c9,746$2,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,923.6764852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked MOUZ18c9,665$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.862,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Spirit67c9,300$6,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0694235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Spirit67c8,458$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,791.2619055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ8c8,446$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.081,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked MOUZ12c8,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.994957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91e8…f1abbacked Spirit67c7,983$5,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,597.6318654.8%102 W · 84 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Spirit70c7,848$5,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,354.2936453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed MOUZ22c7,727$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.091,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed Spirit69c7,378$5,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.3320958.9%123 W · 86 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked MOUZ23c7,000$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.0517540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x482d…ba5ebacked MOUZ30c6,880$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.087441.9%31 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked MOUZ31c6,461$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.87948.1%38 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x823d…189dbacked MOUZ30c6,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+36.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ30c5,948$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,807.432,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Spirit70c5,656$3,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.853351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Spirit71c5,352$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,552.1111253.6%60 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked MOUZ14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70025655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Spirit69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,55037946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a0…eabbbacked MOUZ30c4,903$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.891931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked MOUZ31c4,786$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.6910737.4%40 W · 67 L-0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Spirit73c4,763$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.612449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed MOUZ14c4,635$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.6421135.5%75 W · 136 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Spirit75c4,545$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.323354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Spirit71c4,225$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.3525261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed MOUZ30c4,086$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.7460248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb4…1374backed MOUZ29c4,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1608951.7%46 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecee…a577backed MOUZ30c3,928$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.258226.8%22 W · 60 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x48aa…14febacked Spirit67c3,850$2,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.493246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Spirit68c3,655$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.4648350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked Spirit68c3,531$2,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.8627751.6%143 W · 134 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc6f…959abacked Spirit78c3,314$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.83363.6%21 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6419…0f53backed MOUZ3c3,300$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Spirit67c3,250$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.54652.2%24 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Spirit67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99021251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf83…248bbacked MOUZ30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Spirit71c3,000$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87019660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Spirit70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90012956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9e3…706fbacked Spirit71c2,834$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.2417967.6%121 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x692b…1550backed Spirit71c2,817$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.94961.2%30 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked MOUZ30c2,763$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.32425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed MOUZ30c2,626$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.7817045.9%78 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5012…4d3ebacked MOUZ30c2,613$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.886030%18 W · 42 L-6.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Spirit67c2,529$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.797040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Spirit67c2,500$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.9945455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471e…a63ebacked Spirit70c2,500$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked MOUZ29c2,500$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.9921424.8%53 W · 161 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f4…8e52backed MOUZ30c2,485$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Spirit67c2,261$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.8940558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Spirit66c2,246$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.827940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5b9…da59backed MOUZ32c2,212$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x874e…ab32backed MOUZ32c2,206$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed MOUZ31c2,200$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67425145.8%115 W · 136 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4f6…f51cbacked Spirit70c2,143$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.862360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ff3…ee6dbacked MOUZ30c2,029$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf964…a4cebacked MOUZ30c2,007$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.15837.9%22 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed MOUZ31c2,000$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61019543.6%85 W · 110 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked MOUZ30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked MOUZ30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked MOUZ1c1,982$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2321522.3%48 W · 167 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked MOUZ30c1,964$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.163541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Spirit71c1,963$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.2734146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked MOUZ8c1,934$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508138.3%31 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77cd…338bbacked MOUZ6c1,933$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a3…8cc2backed MOUZ7c1,912$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbb…7e44backed Spirit75c1,863$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.8412871.9%92 W · 36 L+16.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+20.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed MOUZ30c1,840$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55013732.1%44 W · 93 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x972f…65bdbacked Spirit70c1,817$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.1439157.5%225 W · 166 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ13c1,795$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.3498052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ30c1,755$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.655,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x316b…5d97backed MOUZ32c1,698$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed MOUZ30c1,692$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.