TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: RED Canids vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
RED Canidsof RED Canids, paiN Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$110,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,650 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3833…33d1backed paiN Gaming59c15,000$8,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,842.5864155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c3f…2debbacked paiN Gaming0c11,990$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.993056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked RED Canids49c8,000$3,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,046.342,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked paiN Gaming60c7,274$4,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,339.311,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked RED Canids71c5,358$3,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,553.1165359.4%388 W · 265 L+70.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked RED Canids50c5,132$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,551.7635659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed paiN Gaming1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed RED Canids80c3,406$2,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.781060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked RED Canids65c3,315$2,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.421,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed paiN Gaming10c2,900$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.3694237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked paiN Gaming55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,374.981,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed paiN Gaming28c2,447$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.241,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed RED Canids62c2,264$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.262158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed RED Canids43c2,066$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.062,49047.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed paiN Gaming52c2,059$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.5330546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x581a…e40dbacked RED Canids41c1,963$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.117354.8%40 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed paiN Gaming34c1,788$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.0569741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked RED Canids40c1,744$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.2587844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked RED Canids61c1,662$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.621,66059.5%987 W · 673 L+97.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed RED Canids40c1,573$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.751,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked RED Canids42c1,557$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.9784942.5%361 W · 488 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed RED Canids41c1,544$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$910.913947.5%66 W · 73 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked RED Canids48c1,534$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.3398956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed RED Canids78c1,514$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.841,53654.8%842 W · 694 L+75.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked paiN Gaming7c1,443$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.481,91742.3%810 W · 1,107 L-44.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed RED Canids42c1,411$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.441,20335.7%430 W · 773 L+6.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed paiN Gaming27c1,275$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.511,04450.4%526 W · 518 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb35f…cf4cbacked paiN Gaming43c1,166$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.1243346.7%202 W · 231 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed RED Canids42c1,115$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.2333856.2%190 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfad…fa05backed paiN Gaming58c1,027$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,21858.1%708 W · 510 L+44.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed paiN Gaming57c983.65$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.6825949%127 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed paiN Gaming33c910.12$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.572,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed paiN Gaming24c886.48$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.5769041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdccd…f41abacked RED Canids42c792.86$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.8617839.3%70 W · 108 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked RED Canids70c792.74$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.7423549.4%116 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe27c…79e0backed RED Canids43c739.63$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.1939663.4%251 W · 145 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked paiN Gaming45c735.41$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.992,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed paiN Gaming35c700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2451,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked paiN Gaming27c699.35$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.611,95230.6%597 W · 1,355 L-166.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d91…16abbacked RED Canids44c618.88$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.8813456.7%76 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a4c…55babacked RED Canids49c597.2$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.6710859.3%64 W · 44 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed paiN Gaming52c568.38$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.722,15253.3%1,147 W · 1,005 L+58.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed paiN Gaming51c524.59$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.541,39743.7%611 W · 786 L-4.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed RED Canids48c510$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.31,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed paiN Gaming47c500$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.7122746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed paiN Gaming36c492.31$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.981,93048.2%930 W · 1,000 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed RED Canids49c450$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.271,04946%483 W · 566 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed paiN Gaming46c432.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.992,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0612…6193backed paiN Gaming56c420.36$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.3121350.2%107 W · 106 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked RED Canids48c407.5$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.948847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked RED Canids45c400$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201,06154.7%580 W · 481 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f84…202ebacked paiN Gaming58c400$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23295847.6%456 W · 502 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc09b…d784backed paiN Gaming56c350$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1968950.6%45 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked RED Canids49c340.02$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.3693844.3%416 W · 522 L-31.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked RED Canids46c322.77$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.841,30147.2%614 W · 687 L-32.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…1044backed paiN Gaming56c317.89$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.864450%22 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed RED Canids71c314.01$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.51,14945.2%519 W · 630 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf795…5e34backed paiN Gaming8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410017%17 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ad0…6187backed RED Canids41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17716443.3%71 W · 93 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18b7…fff9backed paiN Gaming7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055010.4%57 W · 493 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9473…cba4backed paiN Gaming39c276.17$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6452045%234 W · 286 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eba…c7d7backed paiN Gaming49c244.63$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.164447.7%21 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed RED Canids44c240$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.496452.7%508 W · 456 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked paiN Gaming39c216.66$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.681,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed RED Canids80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4026371.9%189 W · 74 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed paiN Gaming36c199.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.991,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed paiN Gaming20c197.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.571,59946.8%748 W · 851 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed paiN Gaming55c180.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004630.4%14 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked RED Canids65c175$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.121,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf24…8a7ebacked paiN Gaming59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013163.4%83 W · 48 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed RED Canids41c167$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.531,22549.6%607 W · 618 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked RED Canids58c165$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.340916.1%66 W · 343 L-0.8wins0.00per pick16cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked paiN Gaming46c163.9$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7599147.1%467 W · 524 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f20…5d31backed paiN Gaming49c163.5$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.538751.7%45 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed RED Canids79c162.59$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1225865.5%169 W · 89 L+23.7wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f0c…a691backed RED Canids60c140.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3962050.6%314 W · 306 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf2…dfa9backed RED Canids45c124.89$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8930453.3%162 W · 142 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed paiN Gaming54c124.86$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0735542.3%150 W · 205 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4105…8e11backed paiN Gaming58c120.69$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked RED Canids60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4820336.9%75 W · 128 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed paiN Gaming28c119.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.291,60517.5%281 W · 1,324 L-244.2wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed RED Canids43c116$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.1236151.8%187 W · 174 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f38…a0edbacked paiN Gaming55c109.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.976852.9%36 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1c…2679backed RED Canids64c103.96$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.344161.5%271 W · 170 L+25.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf12…7e2cbacked paiN Gaming47c102.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.522540%10 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc690…ec5bbacked paiN Gaming59c101.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6041453.4%221 W · 193 L+1.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a5a…0088backed paiN Gaming11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1149361.5%303 W · 190 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66da…69b0backed paiN Gaming52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+45.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked paiN Gaming28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed RED Canids44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564755.3%26 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5777…f1a7backed RED Canids43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5726048.8%127 W · 133 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f1…cae0backed RED Canids45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5541947%197 W · 222 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked paiN Gaming35c99.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9555428.7%159 W · 395 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked RED Canids63c97$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.692,67235.7%954 W · 1,718 L-153.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed RED Canids62c91.65$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6428260.6%171 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b39…8b50backed RED Canids52c90.71$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7144750.6%226 W · 221 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked RED Canids44c89.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9429637.8%112 W · 184 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa56e…1c76backed paiN Gaming57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507466.2%49 W · 25 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed paiN Gaming16c85.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.553,11933.7%1,052 W · 2,067 L-151.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89ca…e129backed RED Canids56c84.4$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.257568%51 W · 24 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+16.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.