NBA · resolved market
Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 28.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ea729fa09145c10114902eb025f716633edcf4aae7b1160306f5842058f291b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1071…e39ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,400$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…fe3bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1277backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 11cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8735…41bbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,607$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…9a44backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80ef…3973backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…759fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…f17ebacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 34c | 750$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78a…c9edbacked Yes | 7c | 564.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 54c | 502.52$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.16 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe299…761bbacked Yes | 7c | 450.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -15.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…d032backed Yes | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 34c | 220$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Yes | 46c | 218.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Yes | 45c | 193.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…6a87backed Yes | 14c | 166.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 53c | 135$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f0…96bebacked Yes | 47c | 135$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 43c | 124$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Yes | 46c | 100.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 66c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…4b11backed Yes | 15c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3a…5c97backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 55c | 74.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15f…93d7backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +28.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed Yes | 29c | 56.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 65c | 46.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…bc1bbacked No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 98 | 69.4%68 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b4…c865backed Yes | 44c | 22.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 28.5this page
- Clippers vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Clippers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Clippers vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Under won
- Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Under won
- Derrick Jones Jr.: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Kris Dunn: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.