Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed3dd436864261d584ef64f32b6c1d931db6d21bfa02a5cd1a22375a90c147b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,223$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,098.33 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 37c | 845.36$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.99 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 63c | 742.79$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.43 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…b5ddbacked Yes | 6c | 700$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 58c | 683.41$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.81 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 5c | 638.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed No | 22c | 492.06$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 6c | 448.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.34 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 301.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.93 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 44c | 233.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 221$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 55c | 209.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.66 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…3715backed Yes | 53c | 206.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 198.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 196.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked Yes | 47c | 183.71$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 17c | 170.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 168.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 37c | 159.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 19c | 158.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.15 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 49c | 157.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 146$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…eaf5backed No | 79c | 135.41$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.57 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 32c | 128.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 111.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 101$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 74.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 72.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 60.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 41.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 27c | 39.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…b31dbacked Yes | 49c | 38.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Yes | 41c | 37.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…f34abacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 26.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 25.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 53c | 21.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…bf49backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d8…5430backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 80c | 14.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 29?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.