Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f2e2a5103c02846199c28eddad5906a2e94e6b80749ffb7141bbcc28d441cf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,110$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed No | 73c | 805.08$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.87 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 38c | 540$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.59 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 365.31$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.44 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 75c | 364.11$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 300$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 42c | 286.78$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 59c | 270$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 262$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 249.55$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 219.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 50c | 214$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 205.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.02 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 185$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed No | 62c | 180$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 168.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.16 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 32c | 146.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 143.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 10c | 122.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.19 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 120.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 106$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 104.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 100.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…180dbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 40c | 92.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 41c | 85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 80.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 79.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 59c | 76.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 28c | 74.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…b574backed Yes | 18c | 71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 61c | 68.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 67.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 42c | 67.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 65.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 38c | 64.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 75c | 63.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 61c | 57.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 62c | 56.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 52.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 47.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 47.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 36c | 46.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 62c | 46.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked No | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 40.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 40.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…6a94backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 36c | 36.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 60c | 34.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…19a2backed No | 61c | 33.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 54c | 30.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 30.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 64c | 25.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 65c | 25.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…1310backed Yes | 48c | 25.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed Yes | 48c | 24.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 59c | 22.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed Yes | 53c | 20.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 58c | 20.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 19.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 58c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 79c | 13.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.