Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3011acd1f40bd45afe96285bc4227cdf6a55e786ce3a9427a7adb81a48a1256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 67c | 2,306$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 34c | 1,800$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.36 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 61c | 1,427$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.53 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed No | 65c | 1,385$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.31 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 65c | 1,184$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.55 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 31c | 1,171$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.75 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 38c | 546.43$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.93 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 495.51$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 488$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 424.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.15 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed Yes | 55c | 375.59$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.56 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 25c | 338$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 30c | 290.48$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.56 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 41c | 287.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.35 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 276.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 265$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 37c | 264$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 28c | 256.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 236.6$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…248cbacked Yes | 37c | 210.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 28c | 199.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 25c | 193.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 185$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 175$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 37c | 162.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 63c | 159.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 10c | 159.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.21 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 35c | 148.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 72c | 138.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 22c | 119.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 40c | 119.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 34c | 118.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 117.72$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 111.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 41c | 107.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 35c | 107.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 37c | 105.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 104.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed No | 76c | 103.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 29c | 100.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…180dbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 95.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…0becbacked No | 66c | 90.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 86.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 27c | 85.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 52c | 82.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 34c | 80.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 50c | 79.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 54c | 75.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 72c | 73.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 28c | 67.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 38c | 66.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…6532backed Yes | 46c | 65.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 60c | 61.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 79c | 61.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8573…c954backed Yes | 38c | 58.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 56.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 61c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 43c | 53.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…6bcbbacked Yes | 35c | 53.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 52.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 51.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 51.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 50.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 50.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 45.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 42.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 42.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 70c | 40.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 33c | 40.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 35c | 35.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 48c | 34.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 65c | 33.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 76c | 33.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked Yes | 36c | 31.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 58c | 29.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 37c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.