TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Libema Open, Qualification: Niels Visker vs Elias Ymer

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Elias Ymerof Niels Visker, Elias Ymer
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,714

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,420 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d1a…e943backed Niels Visker33c2,770$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91521524.7%53 W · 162 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Niels Visker33c2,753$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.371,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Elias Ymer69c2,411$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.662,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Elias Ymer62c2,308$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.814,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Niels Visker49c1,652$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.3562545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Niels Visker42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6309,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Elias Ymer69c1,435$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.7850458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Elias Ymer71c1,086$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.648,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Elias Ymer76c1,082$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.214,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Niels Visker45c1,050$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.121,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Niels Visker31c967.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Niels Visker21c960.43$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.383,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f1…dcbebacked Niels Visker30c851.07$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.323554.3%19 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Elias Ymer70c714.2$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2678840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Elias Ymer58c693$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.71,82241%747 W · 1,075 L-30.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Elias Ymer66c681.81$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.821,86545.6%851 W · 1,014 L+50.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Niels Visker30c648.34$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.243,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Niels Visker31c637.47$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Elias Ymer66c636.45$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.122,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Niels Visker25c566.58$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Niels Visker19c558.09$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.091,01039.2%396 W · 614 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Niels Visker42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2104,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Elias Ymer67c500$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.427,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Niels Visker30c500$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.342,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Niels Visker15c479.05$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7370729.1%206 W · 501 L+0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Elias Ymer66c441.18$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15081047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Elias Ymer68c438.77$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.4147854.8%262 W · 216 L+25.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Elias Ymer69c428.56$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.851,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7906…be5dbacked Elias Ymer69c400$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1249058.9%53 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f24…e803backed Niels Visker27c400$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10811255.4%62 W · 50 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Elias Ymer67c400$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1302,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x692b…b4f2backed Elias Ymer69c363$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5345744.2%202 W · 255 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Niels Visker31c357.71$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1542359.1%250 W · 173 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Niels Visker31c331.25$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Elias Ymer68c303.41$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.482,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Niels Visker31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9389850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Niels Visker32c250.43$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1491755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Niels Visker30c240$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7292138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8406…c2fabacked Niels Visker30c239.6$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.881338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Niels Visker41c212.25$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.043,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Niels Visker19c203.42$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7766834.3%229 W · 439 L-43.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Elias Ymer69c202.9$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.984968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Niels Visker31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621,77648.6%863 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Niels Visker31c193.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,14247.3%540 W · 602 L+65.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Elias Ymer66c189.02$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.271,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4bc…b19dbacked Elias Ymer62c188.13$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.638543.5%37 W · 48 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2965…0dedbacked Niels Visker19c185.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6158539.5%231 W · 354 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Niels Visker29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf84b…6455backed Niels Visker9c166.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.971217.4%9 W · 112 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Niels Visker31c160$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.61,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Niels Visker31c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.51,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Elias Ymer68c148.24$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.443,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Elias Ymer76c147.8$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6574547.4%353 W · 392 L-28.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Elias Ymer69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9335164.1%225 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Elias Ymer71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8558045.9%266 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Niels Visker30c140$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4226921.2%57 W · 212 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Elias Ymer61c138$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.826,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Elias Ymer68c127.07$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6668951.1%352 W · 337 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Niels Visker41c125.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6343250.5%218 W · 214 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Niels Visker38c125$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7134650.6%175 W · 171 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Niels Visker25c115.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.243,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Elias Ymer70c103.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.21,22753.2%653 W · 574 L-5.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6be…a9a7backed Niels Visker32c103.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3313441.8%56 W · 78 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Niels Visker11c100.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.091,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Elias Ymer75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2533352.6%175 W · 158 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23ea…672bbacked Niels Visker25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-58.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Elias Ymer65c97.62$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.172,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Elias Ymer69c96.85$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.021,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4166…4f83backed Niels Visker20c91.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.412938.8%50 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Niels Visker18c84.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.831,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Niels Visker19c82.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.632,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Elias Ymer68c82$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.241,07752.4%564 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Niels Visker21c80.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172,15137.3%802 W · 1,349 L-27.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Elias Ymer71c78.41$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7450340%201 W · 302 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Niels Visker32c78.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2537238.2%142 W · 230 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x561d…4134backed Elias Ymer64c73.48$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6844949.4%222 W · 227 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfaa…28f7backed Elias Ymer74c70$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.993945.5%427 W · 512 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2688…9197backed Elias Ymer69c58.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0933558.5%196 W · 139 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x585c…b154backed Elias Ymer80c57.45$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.494100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8de6…8b3cbacked Niels Visker31c50.73$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.738252.4%43 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Niels Visker30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Elias Ymer68c49.49$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.847,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a2…8ff7backed Niels Visker30c44.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3339443.9%173 W · 221 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4567…0fd6backed Elias Ymer69c43.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.482653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Elias Ymer63c39.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.382,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…206cbacked Niels Visker32c37.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0885637.7%323 W · 533 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Niels Visker31c36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1624740.1%99 W · 148 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Elias Ymer69c35.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1649151.7%254 W · 237 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf638…64aebacked Niels Visker31c32.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20bf…2be9backed Niels Visker32c32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2414841.9%62 W · 86 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1351…178bbacked Niels Visker32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016746.7%78 W · 89 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Elias Ymer68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.642353.7%227 W · 196 L-1.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked Elias Ymer72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3715053.3%80 W · 70 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f8b…a0cabacked Elias Ymer68c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.612659.5%75 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Elias Ymer70c28.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.531,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0b2a…0a73backed Elias Ymer71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1794058.4%549 W · 391 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a98…639dbacked Elias Ymer73c27.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.466250%31 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Elias Ymer68c25.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.151,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4224…31fbbacked Elias Ymer69c21.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7422138.9%86 W · 135 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Elias Ymer73c19.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.374,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.