Dota2 · resolved market
Team Yandex to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8030036597966794ae5048567592df0da443ec3d29e8b3b90059c0e5895fe2b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 57c | 3,484$1,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.87 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…c244backed Yes | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.97 | 295 | 46.1%136 W · 159 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 39c | 1,766$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.78 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 1,732$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.77 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…7b0abacked No | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3a…5678backed No | 40c | 1,209$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 39c | 1,191$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.99 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Yes | 68c | 964$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.17 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed No | 20c | 930$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 39c | 928.49$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.28 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked No | 57c | 777.37$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.12 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe705…f910backed No | 40c | 564.06$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.44 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Yes | 60c | 501.62$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.97 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes | 80c | 483.9$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.89 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Yes | 77c | 473.09$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.18 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed No | 41c | 462.38$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.8 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 58c | 403.73$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed No | 19c | 388.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.86 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 20c | 376.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.02 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yes | 79c | 354.67$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.83 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 80c | 312.29$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.31 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 61c | 290.19$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 62c | 288.86$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.95 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed No | 42c | 235.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.71 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 44c | 235.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 33c | 211.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.73 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Yes | 80c | 180$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…695dbacked Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 24c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x001b…698bbacked No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked Yes | 50c | 101.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Yes | 76c | 85.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed Yes | 46c | 76.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 42c | 67.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Yes | 45c | 67.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 59c | 66.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 67c | 65.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 40c | 63.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Yes | 61c | 60.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 79c | 59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Yes | 60c | 51.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed No | 23c | 50.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0a…0bb8backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Yes | 49c | 46.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked No | 42c | 41.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…401dbacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 40c | 41.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 43c | 34.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Yes | 60c | 34.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…b6d5backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…0379backed Yes | 53c | 31.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Yes | 34c | 31.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceea…ec81backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed Yes | 75c | 26.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…cfbbbacked Yes | 70c | 21.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Team Yandex to win 2-0?this page
- OG to win 2-0?No won
- Team Yandex vs OG: Draw (1-1)?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.