TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hynek Bartonof Hynek Barton, Taro Daniel
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$176,109
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$174,973

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,109 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c2f…499cbacked Taro Daniel10c10,296$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010345.6%47 W · 56 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Taro Daniel0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1075312.2%92 W · 661 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hynek Barton76c6,419$4,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,543.3911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7885…1173backed Taro Daniel0c5,366$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0516654.8%91 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae51…1d03backed Hynek Barton71c5,359$3,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.5815554.2%84 W · 71 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid0%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Taro Daniel34c3,531$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.841,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Taro Daniel15c3,523$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.371,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1bf…e36bbacked Taro Daniel11c2,689$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Taro Daniel20c2,541$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.9511237.5%42 W · 70 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Taro Daniel29c2,022$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.9471725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Hynek Barton73c1,624$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.944,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Taro Daniel22c1,516$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.031,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74bd…d371backed Taro Daniel13c1,332$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.0942125.7%108 W · 313 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9807…157bbacked Taro Daniel32c1,250$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40033438.6%129 W · 205 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Taro Daniel12c1,195$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.43,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Taro Daniel40c1,049$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.6485348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Taro Daniel40c1,049$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.6465952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Taro Daniel13c1,014$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.787,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Taro Daniel40c998.04$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.29,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2903…9203backed Hynek Barton65c975.31$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.81,07660.4%650 W · 426 L+24.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Taro Daniel41c918.24$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.4367239.1%263 W · 409 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41f0…0191backed Taro Daniel6c892.31$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Taro Daniel24c762.14$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.22,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Taro Daniel15c700.93$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.711,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Taro Daniel40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eac…9b93backed Taro Daniel12c489.6$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.388331.3%26 W · 57 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Hynek Barton71c488.22$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.238,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cf8…75e4backed Taro Daniel33c459.48$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15119343.5%84 W · 109 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Taro Daniel25c454.52$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.652,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Hynek Barton68c441.18$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.871,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Taro Daniel22c403.82$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.34,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Hynek Barton77c391.09$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1291755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Hynek Barton64c380.34$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.921,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Taro Daniel11c368.32$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Taro Daniel14c350$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4918741.2%77 W · 110 L+0.9wins0.00per pick41cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Hynek Barton59c338.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9878857.1%450 W · 338 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Taro Daniel39c328.88$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7358639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Hynek Barton68c316$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.123,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Hynek Barton67c314.4$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7547854.8%262 W · 216 L+25.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Taro Daniel16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,41745.2%640 W · 777 L+41.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a00…9158backed Hynek Barton66c308.04$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7378840.6%320 W · 468 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Taro Daniel26c301.62$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.662,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Taro Daniel17c294.47$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.898,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Taro Daniel36c277.97$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.416,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20b4…bfa2backed Taro Daniel43c234.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033540.9%137 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Taro Daniel25c233.8$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.936,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c21…3bc2backed Taro Daniel15c221$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.422944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b43…9e23backed Taro Daniel12c209.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519531.3%61 W · 134 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Hynek Barton63c205.25$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.542,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Hynek Barton66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6834154.3%185 W · 156 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Taro Daniel13c191.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Taro Daniel16c190.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3046453%246 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed Hynek Barton65c190.48$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6724856.9%141 W · 107 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Taro Daniel13c169.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.336,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Taro Daniel24c165.31$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.383,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x782c…38c2backed Hynek Barton61c163.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7216063.8%102 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…31f9backed Hynek Barton61c158.28$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.155850%29 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a1e…f992backed Taro Daniel38c157.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6065434.9%228 W · 426 L-28.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Hynek Barton62c147.91$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8527231.3%85 W · 187 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Taro Daniel14c144.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206923.2%16 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cca…efe9backed Hynek Barton61c139.92$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.271553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Hynek Barton61c122$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.11,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Hynek Barton66c119$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.467,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked Hynek Barton68c110$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2552557%299 W · 226 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x700b…8d0bbacked Taro Daniel38c109.39$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.577250%36 W · 36 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Hynek Barton67c102.46$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2999249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Taro Daniel30c100.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.112,04453.8%1,100 W · 944 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Hynek Barton66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3468951.1%352 W · 337 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Hynek Barton64c96.19$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.293,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0a…ea32backed Taro Daniel13c93.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.543618.3%80 W · 356 L-21.4wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f06…3e6ebacked Taro Daniel19c92.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.185617.9%10 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-40.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Hynek Barton67c89.86$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.931,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e0…5a1bbacked Taro Daniel33c75.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521533.5%72 W · 143 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476e…cfb9backed Hynek Barton63c73$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0135060.9%213 W · 137 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Hynek Barton69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4650958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe8b…5e62backed Taro Daniel35c71.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2523932.6%78 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Taro Daniel16c68.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1144051.6%227 W · 213 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Taro Daniel36c58.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.931,68845.4%766 W · 922 L-10.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Taro Daniel17c57.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Hynek Barton60c56.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.561,63955.1%903 W · 736 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Hynek Barton80c56$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2734847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Taro Daniel33c52.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1857842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7891…c020backed Hynek Barton78c46.05$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1617062.4%106 W · 64 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Hynek Barton63c45.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6892138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Hynek Barton67c44.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.692,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Taro Daniel33c42.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9320048%96 W · 104 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…d6a5backed Taro Daniel37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Taro Daniel33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7334…cc1cbacked Taro Daniel33c37.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.351735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8951…dfcfbacked Hynek Barton66c37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5825858.1%150 W · 108 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea5…04f6backed Taro Daniel33c33.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113842.1%16 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1952…dbf9backed Hynek Barton60c33.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.223644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb90…c03dbacked Hynek Barton66c32.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.215543.6%24 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Hynek Barton66c30.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.381,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Hynek Barton64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…8a6ebacked Hynek Barton71c27.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1141768.1%284 W · 133 L-21.4wins-0.05per pick73cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Hynek Barton70c26.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.151,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b31…b2a3backed Hynek Barton68c25.7$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.222842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6944…3902backed Hynek Barton79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.328662.8%54 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18d2…e9c3backed Hynek Barton70c23.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8922876.8%175 W · 53 L+16.2wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.