Fed Rates · resolved market
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x813f03d207074c35baea1962692d15542ceddebc1f8fcf2c7af566e7d572eb25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4796…af7ebacked No | 53c | 31,168$16,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,519.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1c…a1f8backed Yes | 47c | 31,168$14,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,519.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 21c | 4,100$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,254.28 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 2c | 2,718$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.52 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 32c | 2,574$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 18c | 919.14$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 10c | 825.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +218.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…12ddbacked Yes | 19c | 803.08$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +439.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 4c | 736.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +506.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…ce66backed No | 75c | 585.26$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 3c | 573.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +461.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 18c | 495.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.93 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked No | 70c | 394.29$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662f…ac37backed No | 74c | 299.99$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 29c | 233.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.74 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 211.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.09 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…37fbbacked No | 78c | 200$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 75c | 193.79$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 186.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.16 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 30c | 164.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6791…7ab9backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed No | 40c | 128.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 73c | 121.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 30c | 120.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed No | 73c | 113.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed No | 67c | 100.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…45a9backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 99.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 67.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 67.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…87cfbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2513…fa7fbacked No | 71c | 51.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df2…3a09backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 26c | 49.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf30…82e8backed Yes | 37c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 32c | 40.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a7…c0debacked Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…bed2backed Yes | 52c | 29.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…4967backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42f2…767abacked No | 65c | 15.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…2096backed No | 69c | 14.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x619c…8971backed No | 74c | 14.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.