NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81c6d78111c0d2b0bf47d1012a21786a4327bf549da6ffea01e54bf1746ac754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18d1…dbcbbacked Nets | 47c | 26,724$12,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,500 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Rockets | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…6c60backed Nets | 50c | 9,980$4,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,990 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…facdbacked Rockets | 50c | 9,567$4,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,783.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Rockets | 52c | 6,591$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,191.25 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rockets | 53c | 4,739$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.48 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Nets | 49c | 4,103$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.89 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1147…da78backed Rockets | 53c | 3,873$2,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.92 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Nets | 47c | 3,666$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.25 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rockets | 54c | 3,410$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.31 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Nets | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 587 | 40%235 W · 352 L | +24.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Rockets | 49c | 2,782$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.75 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Nets | 50c | 2,727$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.43 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets | 53c | 2,509$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.11 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Rockets | 53c | 2,148$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.24 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Nets | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rockets | 53c | 1,981$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.07 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Rockets | 52c | 1,919$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.04 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Rockets | 52c | 1,555$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.4 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…540abacked Rockets | 53c | 1,442$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.51 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 51cpaid | +59%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 53c | 1,104$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…d765backed Nets | 52c | 1,077$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Nets | 47c | 1,036$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Rockets | 52c | 1,009$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.51 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Rockets | 47c | 945$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.85 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed Rockets | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Rockets | 45c | 320$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Rockets | 51c | 315$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Nets | 49c | 260$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Nets | 47c | 250.94$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 49c | 228.55$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Rockets | 53c | 207.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.51 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Nets | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…e1e6backed Nets | 56c | 135$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Nets | 50c | 121.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Nets | 45c | 116$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nets | 51c | 111.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…56e7backed Rockets | 51c | 109.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Rockets | 50c | 107$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9331…4b41backed Rockets | 51c | 104.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rockets | 50c | 100.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Nets | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Nets | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 522 | 42.7%223 W · 299 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Rockets | 51c | 92.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Nets | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Rockets | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -12.3wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…b4f8backed Nets | 52c | 71.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60aa…fab0backed Nets | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Rockets | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Nets | 47c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Rockets | 50c | 39.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Nets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe336…3fc9backed Nets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…55b8backed Nets | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Rockets | 51c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…7f18backed Rockets | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…512cbacked Rockets | 53c | 26.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…af09backed Nets | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Rockets | 54c | 22.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…5136backed Nets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Nets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Rockets won
- Rockets vs. NetsRockets won
- Rockets vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Nets: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nets: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nets: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 217.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 220.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 221.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.