NBA · resolved market

Spread: Rockets (-10.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b561f386709160c53416d601c7f16bada8c59a0105e891ce356f5c79be9da3a

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Rocketsof Rockets, Nets
Resolved: Jan 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $38,030
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,030 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0352…3292backed Rockets	50c	11,270$5,651 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,618.21	101	58.4%59 W · 42 L	+7.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets	44c	4,466$1,959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,958.76	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Rockets	57c	2,788$1,579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,209.35	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16da…ef29backed Rockets	55c	2,000$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	129	60.5%78 W · 51 L	+7.0wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Rockets	52c	1,780$926 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$854.39	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Rockets	56c	1,364$764 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600.29	404	51.5%208 W · 196 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Nets	46c	1,359$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.76	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nets	43c	1,264$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.77	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Rockets	56c	1,071$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.43	462	58.2%269 W · 193 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nets	44c	1,064$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.35	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Nets	45c	999.96$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.98	587	40%235 W · 352 L	+24.3wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9315…a744backed Rockets	52c	898$467 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$431.04	67	67.2%45 W · 22 L	+10.7wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+31.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x18a4…1a5dbacked Nets	49c	897.96$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nets	45c	866.27$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.43	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Nets	34c	739.62$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	220	35.5%78 W · 142 L	-11.5wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Nets	43c	721.64$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.31	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Nets	46c	652.17$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Rockets	66c	628.62$415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.73	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Nets	51c	601$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.86	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Rockets	51c	592.63$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.63	386	49.5%191 W · 195 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Rockets	56c	578$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.32	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…74cfbacked Rockets	59c	527.99$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.04	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Nets	43c	500$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df0…7eb8backed Nets	42c	390.48$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Nets	36c	335.37$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.71	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a9f…c2a6backed Rockets	62c	324.56$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.56	75	50.7%38 W · 37 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Nets	45c	319$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.82	2,045	48.4%990 W · 1,055 L	-30.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Rockets	58c	307.74$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.25	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefe8…fe1abacked Rockets	59c	300$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123	93	41.9%39 W · 54 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Rockets	60c	250$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0add…4c8ebacked Nets	44c	223.91$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.52	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x35a6…ab4dbacked Nets	41c	210.68$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.38	27	70.4%19 W · 8 L	+4.9wins	+0.18per pick	52cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Nets	49c	204.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	110	41.8%46 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nets	38c	201.56$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.59	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Nets	46c	200$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Rockets	58c	199.97$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.99	275	47.6%131 W · 144 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e46…25c2backed Rockets	60c	166.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	110	47.3%52 W · 58 L	-7.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Nets	48c	163.62$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.58	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nets	49c	152.3$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.37	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Rockets	73c	137.88$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.88	168	64.3%108 W · 60 L	+5.6wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Nets	37c	134.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	139	59.7%83 W · 56 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Nets	43c	132.54$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.13	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Nets	47c	127.66$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x561e…3e87backed Nets	47c	127.66$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	114	40.4%46 W · 68 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd6d…8a40backed Rockets	55c	126.33$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.85	18	50%9 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Nets	43c	125$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.75	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed Nets	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	75	44%33 W · 42 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Rockets	64c	100$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	214	40.7%87 W · 127 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4010…77d4backed Rockets	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	481	46.2%222 W · 259 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa57…1e6bbacked Rockets	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Rockets	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Nets	45c	83$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.35	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Rockets	57c	73.34$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.3	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Rockets	57c	70.18$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.18	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde2a…6bfebacked Nets	32c	70$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56e…0bb4backed Nets	46c	65.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	242	48.3%117 W · 125 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Rockets	61c	64.07$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.08	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked Rockets	56c	62.5$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	111	43.2%48 W · 63 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked Rockets	55c	54.31$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Nets	47c	53.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.28	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Rockets	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	183	47.5%87 W · 96 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Rockets	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nets	44c	50$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Nets	49c	42.2$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.68	210	56.2%118 W · 92 L	+10.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ce8…1200backed Nets	46c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…581bbacked Rockets	60c	38.12$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.25	91	65.9%60 W · 31 L	+8.4wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Rockets	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf23c…555dbacked Rockets	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	54	63%34 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0a…7d46backed Rockets	55c	36.21$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.21	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedb5…ce8ebacked Rockets	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	217	56.7%123 W · 94 L	+6.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3552…f07bbacked Rockets	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	168	49.4%83 W · 85 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bb…d0d6backed Nets	42c	34.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Rockets	60c	32.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72e4…0369backed Nets	46c	32.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	64	45.3%29 W · 35 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Nets	38c	31.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60aa…fab0backed Nets	46c	30.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Rockets	58c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef69…cdbdbacked Rockets	55c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	71	50.7%36 W · 35 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Rockets	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	139	53.2%74 W · 65 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6931…89cabacked Nets	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	102	48%49 W · 53 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Nets	43c	28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.04	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ff…4085backed Rockets	53c	27.53$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.94	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Rockets	61c	24.59$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.59	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3194…2943backed Rockets	57c	24.56$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ff…121cbacked Rockets	55c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Rockets (-10.5)this page
1H Spread: Rockets (-5.5)Rockets won
1H Spread: Rockets (-6.5)Rockets won
1H Spread: Rockets (-7.5)Rockets won
Rockets vs. NetsRockets won
Rockets vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineRockets won
Rockets vs. Nets: 1H O/U 105.5Under won
Rockets vs. Nets: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
Rockets vs. Nets: 1H O/U 107.5Under won
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 216.5Under won
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 217.5Under won
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 218.5Under won
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 219.5Under won
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 220.5Under won
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 221.5Under won
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Under won
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 226.5Under won
Spread: Rockets (-11.5)Rockets won
Spread: Rockets (-12.5)Rockets won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Rockets (-10.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event