TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Grizzlies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Heat, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,418,231
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,440,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,418,231 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 391 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5afb…4511backed Grizzlies59c893,158$525,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525,339.965540%22 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Heat41c446,221$182,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263,270.4715443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Heat41c149,395$61,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,142.978843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Heat42c86,883$36,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,653.7971052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat41c54,370$22,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,078.32,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Heat42c39,408$16,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,914.5136148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x576d…767dbacked Heat42c30,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,399.992245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Grizzlies58c30,000$17,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,399.997149.3%35 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x154c…ce5ebacked Heat43c25,000$10,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,2501833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Heat43c23,668$10,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,395.21,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Heat47c22,000$10,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,640.4441848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9011…4a6abacked Heat50c15,064$7,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,532250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e0…e403backed Grizzlies50c15,064$7,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,532250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Grizzlies60c15,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,00038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed Heat42c14,000$5,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,119.983663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Grizzlies59c12,698$7,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,491.8616251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Heat42c12,650$5,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,33710930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Heat41c11,111$4,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,555.4915952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Heat43c10,000$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,699.996152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Grizzlies1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Grizzlies58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,799.9635235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Grizzlies52c9,847$5,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,128.8447448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91cc…18c3backed Heat40c9,720$3,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,8324100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+97.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Heat42c9,524$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,523.814766%31 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Grizzlies52c9,408$4,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,927.6585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005a…5650backed Grizzlies60c9,046$5,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,427.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c35…041dbacked Heat40c9,046$3,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,427.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6764…6383backed Heat40c8,981$3,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,384.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…7985backed Grizzlies60c8,400$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,040425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86bc…a198backed Grizzlies60c8,400$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,040425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Heat41c8,199$3,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,837.1830053.3%160 W · 140 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Grizzlies26c8,071$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,115.9781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Heat42c7,000$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,06046342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee83…3848backed Grizzlies60c6,700$4,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,020333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Heat43c6,665$2,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,807.2844459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Heat40c5,983$2,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,589.5119249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat43c5,967$2,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,413.038,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat40c5,518$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,323.9474748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e1b…3539backed Heat41c5,300$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1272100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…3dc8backed Grizzlies60c5,300$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,180333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Heat42c5,007$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,919.074553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Grizzlies27c5,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35053134.7%184 W · 347 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7440…24fdbacked Heat40c4,800$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,880450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Heat42c4,679$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,692.335246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Grizzlies1c4,090$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.97211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Heat42c4,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,32072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Heat42c4,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3201,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Heat42c4,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3203237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Grizzlies15c3,938$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.220253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd94a…9a80backed Grizzlies0c3,910$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Grizzlies0c3,689$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.715502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Heat42c3,525$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,044.547751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Grizzlies57c3,487$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.242,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat42c3,423$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.926,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Heat42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,74047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d2…86fdbacked Grizzlies58c3,000$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Heat51c2,856$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.9847144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa93…afc1backed Heat41c2,599$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.222245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Grizzlies14c2,457$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.941227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Heat55c2,391$1,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.8785344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Grizzlies38c2,268$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.82,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Heat50c2,250$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.585,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Grizzlies57c2,235$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.8461851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Grizzlies59c2,115$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.6395049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Heat42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.0375347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Heat42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16017637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Heat41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.241,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Grizzlies13c1,974$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.0327041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Grizzlies57c1,954$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.525149%25 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…20b4backed Grizzlies58c1,724$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d1…f3a9backed Grizzlies60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed Grizzlies17c1,592$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.7135532.4%115 W · 240 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ef9…cf12backed Grizzlies59c1,200$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Heat41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5901,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x730d…6cfabacked Grizzlies60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x111c…2ac5backed Heat41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5903250%16 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Heat41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5903342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc23b…24f9backed Heat40c1,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6004951%25 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ff…e7f5backed Heat41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5902657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Grizzlies59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59020847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac0…a4f8backed Grizzlies1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102733.3%9 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeefb…c552backed Grizzlies60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…fb32backed Grizzlies2c999.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205123.5%12 W · 39 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bff…331cbacked Grizzlies56c999.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.993542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Heat41c946$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.141,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies60c894.15$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.692,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Grizzlies61c852.78$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52024151.9%125 W · 116 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Heat41c835.22$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.973,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked Heat42c828.57$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.576953.6%37 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Grizzlies56c819.5$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.9215745.2%71 W · 86 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Heat36c807.48$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.7880146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Heat42c785.96$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.3469852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Heat42c749.99$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43526149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Heat40c719.06$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.4412160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Heat55c712$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.241,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Heat42c700$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40649142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70a8…6dfdbacked Grizzlies4c695.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3116325.2%41 W · 122 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Heat41c685$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.2473647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Heat41c672$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.561,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Heat48c637.97$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.3959743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.