Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x821b9ea33005c395fe92ac0a57ea6671c75ad78301c2419bbaec10fc997b3e7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 735.93$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 20c | 357.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 266.8$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Yes | 29c | 264.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 256.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 30c | 228.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 228$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 209.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 185.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 70c | 174.87$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 170.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 127.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 36c | 121.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 37c | 119$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 118.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 117.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 111.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 107$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 101.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a592backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 56c | 84.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 51c | 76.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 28c | 76.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 55c | 72.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 71.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 73c | 67.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 36c | 65.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 35c | 64.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 25c | 57.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 23c | 53.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 32c | 51.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.31 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 51.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 34c | 48.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 45.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 38c | 45.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 37c | 42.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 26c | 41.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 50c | 40.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 72c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 37.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 73c | 34.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 40c | 32.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 70c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 23.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 18.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 18.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.