Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46ee5b278c9c08fd092d447356e0e93398dec2b4653dd1b77a0574c7ab6c5636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 1,521$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,074$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.66 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 905.93$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.44 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 695.99$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 658.43$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 439$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 46c | 381.23$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.8 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 308.43$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 304.79$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.65 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 6c | 278.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 54c | 267.81$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 258$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 37c | 201.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 171$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 61c | 155$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 9c | 152.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 148.31$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 51c | 146.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 140.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 137$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 118.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 110.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 106.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 101.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 24c | 91.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 39c | 90.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 55c | 87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 83.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ee…11b4backed No | 42c | 77.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 52c | 75.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 49c | 71.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 70.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 61.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 68c | 60.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 54c | 58.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 65c | 55.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 48c | 54.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 53.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 52c | 51.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 50.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 63c | 44.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked No | 47c | 42.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…dfbdbacked Yes | 54c | 42.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 63c | 39.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 38.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…02c0backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 38c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 63c | 33.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 32.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 42c | 32.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…214cbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…60ccbacked Yes | 60c | 28.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 63c | 28.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 54c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…dcfdbacked No | 47c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 24.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 22.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 22.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 63c | 22.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 63c | 20.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.