Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82946b1a4cdfe63a93c797747d3e4d83764a30ba01bb08bb9e7abfe33810f2d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 946.06$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 56c | 531.89$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.75 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 486.01$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.76 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 20c | 478.28$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 30c | 468.58$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 36c | 404.59$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 383.9$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…5905backed Yes | 61c | 353.68$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 38c | 312.13$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.71 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 298.44$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 259.24$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 61c | 244.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 234.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 64c | 214$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 204.19$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 186.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 64c | 178.52$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.47 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 166.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 165.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 156.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked No | 74c | 153.31$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 152.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…9ebebacked Yes | 65c | 150.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…8ed9backed No | 46c | 148.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 80c | 146.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 144.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 43c | 142$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 70c | 140.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 76c | 140.63$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 9c | 132$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 48c | 129.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 32c | 125.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.09 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 124.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 44c | 120.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 40c | 115.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 109.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 37c | 106.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 45c | 105.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 38c | 102.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 97.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 22c | 96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 48c | 96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 89.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 64c | 89.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 41c | 87.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 84.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 57c | 84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 79.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 64c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 77.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 74.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 37c | 73.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 65c | 73.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 72.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 51c | 70.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 66.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 22c | 64.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 44c | 57.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed No | 56c | 53.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 66c | 51.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 42c | 51.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 43c | 46.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 32c | 44.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 50c | 44.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 37c | 44.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 41c | 43.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 40c | 42.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 43c | 42.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 41.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 50c | 39.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 39.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed No | 62c | 38.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 42c | 35.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 55c | 35.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 40c | 34.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 74c | 33.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 63c | 32.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 45c | 31.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 63c | 30.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.