Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf68f8dedbbd32d508c973a8dddaf57aabdf7779dfafc4cd2335ab4739a37e5aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 52c | 972.78$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.74 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 836.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…07cdbacked Yes | 55c | 538.84$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.9 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 20c | 502.94$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7c10backed Yes | 14c | 458.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 440.53$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.08 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 29c | 410.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 376.98$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 279.8$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 222$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 216.46$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 209.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 44c | 209.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.35 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 40c | 198.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 31c | 198.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 50c | 180.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 179.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 172.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 58c | 171.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 163.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 150.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 150.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 40c | 139.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 30c | 134.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 55c | 130.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 129.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 49c | 126.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 126$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 50c | 124.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 49c | 116.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 48c | 110.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 62c | 109.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 64c | 108.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c2…5905backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 50c | 99.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 58c | 96.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 95.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 94.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 46c | 93.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 92.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 90.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 50c | 82.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 79.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 74.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 46c | 73.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 46c | 71.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 69.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 62c | 67.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 57c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 44.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 40c | 42.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 32c | 42.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 49c | 38.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 36c | 36.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed Yes | 57c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 35.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 47c | 34.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 50c | 32.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 31.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…1bafbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed Yes | 52c | 29.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 40c | 28.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 27.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 50c | 25.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 23.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 66c | 22.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 51c | 21.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.