TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Women's: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs Zhuoxuan Bai

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Baiof Pavlyuchenkova, Bai
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$143,842
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$154,769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,842 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9371…3aecbacked Pavlyuchenkova0c47,398$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.362857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bai52c15,682$8,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,588.438,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Pavlyuchenkova49c6,031$2,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,965.5522641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Bai28c5,040$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,651.951,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pavlyuchenkova45c3,871$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.3211,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Pavlyuchenkova59c3,576$2,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.621,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e92…c03fbacked Pavlyuchenkova61c3,261$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Pavlyuchenkova72c3,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bai51c2,570$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,267.832,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d9…651bbacked Bai51c2,538$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.994654.3%25 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bai40c2,210$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.081,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4064…5f1ebacked Pavlyuchenkova64c2,060$1,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31528039.3%110 W · 170 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c7a…7625backed Bai49c2,033$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.3726045.4%118 W · 142 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Bai52c1,897$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.422839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Pavlyuchenkova54c1,862$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008053.8%43 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pavlyuchenkova43c1,712$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.336,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bai30c1,523$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.742,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Pavlyuchenkova40c1,263$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Pavlyuchenkova63c1,201$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.462061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b3…7c36backed Pavlyuchenkova8c1,200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Bai41c1,170$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.459151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9da8…e5afbacked Pavlyuchenkova57c1,133$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.541040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4192…7f00backed Bai24c1,057$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.835030%15 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+45.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Bai42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58081938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Bai39c960$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.127733.6%93 W · 184 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Bai37c819.45$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.1836032.5%117 W · 243 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67a7…86cebacked Pavlyuchenkova47c800.11$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.056331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094d…59f3backed Bai67c707.28$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.394938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Pavlyuchenkova61c690$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.4514940.9%61 W · 88 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bai38c678.96$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.71,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e69…200ebacked Pavlyuchenkova61c630.28$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.152445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Bai40c600$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Pavlyuchenkova50c589.68$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.2370148.2%338 W · 363 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Pavlyuchenkova58c577.87$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.1676546.8%358 W · 407 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Pavlyuchenkova35c515$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5219023.2%44 W · 146 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Pavlyuchenkova8c500$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.671368.1%11 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bai52c492.75$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.832,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e78…52b5backed Pavlyuchenkova55c488.5$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.279348.4%45 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5c…48f9backed Bai43c483$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.3115447.4%73 W · 81 L+14.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Bai39c461$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.337,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pavlyuchenkova59c451$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.0927944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Pavlyuchenkova56c435.03$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.834,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf691…ef99backed Bai71c422.68$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.681163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Pavlyuchenkova4c400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171085.6%6 W · 102 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bai51c361.75$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.882,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Bai41c351$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.0981047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e2f…35efbacked Bai59c339.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.121844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Bai47c329.09$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.4322236.9%82 W · 140 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc6…314abacked Pavlyuchenkova35c312.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.121233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Pavlyuchenkova32c312.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10073350.9%373 W · 360 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Pavlyuchenkova71c309.03$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pavlyuchenkova52c306.8$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.367,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc494…543cbacked Pavlyuchenkova59c278.64$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.112450%12 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Pavlyuchenkova63c253.97$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16029661.5%182 W · 114 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Pavlyuchenkova29c249.92$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.359744.3%43 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Pavlyuchenkova64c230.05$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1475343.4%23 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked Bai38c212.95$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.886043.3%26 W · 34 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Pavlyuchenkova59c207.83$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6229636.8%109 W · 187 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Bai52c207.81$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4525542%107 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Pavlyuchenkova50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Bai36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12838048.4%184 W · 196 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85d…95d8backed Bai63c179.83$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.235860.3%35 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3657…3d22backed Pavlyuchenkova34c175.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…a505backed Bai45c165.8$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.771553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e5…293bbacked Pavlyuchenkova64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010962.4%68 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca8…db1fbacked Bai62c152.39$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9112344.7%55 W · 68 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07fe…0a16backed Bai40c151.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.327058.1%157 W · 113 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Pavlyuchenkova9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.54599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd8…8593backed Bai31c145.26$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.23837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Bai50c139.88$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.881,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba68…39d7backed Pavlyuchenkova53c138.54$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.841030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-52.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce70…0be2backed Pavlyuchenkova55c133.87$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.081040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Pavlyuchenkova48c131.56$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.427041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8476backed Bai31c128.94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.972462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Pavlyuchenkova54c128.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7043158.2%251 W · 180 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc1…8b83backed Pavlyuchenkova54c122.04$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.38728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-50.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x064e…4347backed Pavlyuchenkova64c117.59$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.267644.7%34 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Bai36c113.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.315648.7%76 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed Pavlyuchenkova64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Pavlyuchenkova48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Pavlyuchenkova60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6026833.6%90 W · 178 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2064…0ab1backed Pavlyuchenkova58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5840144.1%177 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd010…7754backed Pavlyuchenkova37c99.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f42…2260backed Bai41c97.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5616158.4%94 W · 67 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9b…8b7dbacked Pavlyuchenkova43c94.23$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.627037%100 W · 170 L-1.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Pavlyuchenkova23c88.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2072957.3%418 W · 311 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Pavlyuchenkova48c83.96$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.535944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8339…caa9backed Pavlyuchenkova60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016355.8%91 W · 72 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Pavlyuchenkova62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5083661%510 W · 326 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Bai51c77.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1828139.1%110 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf947…497bbacked Pavlyuchenkova27c73.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d2d…4565backed Bai72c66.76$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.694100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c7c…ca88backed Pavlyuchenkova63c66.2$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Bai40c64.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5629553.2%157 W · 138 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Bai41c63$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1731332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…993dbacked Pavlyuchenkova64c59.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.064951%25 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c16…8f87backed Bai28c57.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.06650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb8…753bbacked Pavlyuchenkova36c56.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019129.8%57 W · 134 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ee…8067backed Pavlyuchenkova63c55.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3549955.1%275 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Bai39c54.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3360240.5%244 W · 358 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.