CS2 · resolved market
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Rio 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x868fb8d0fc73be850d559ec9ee78ea9f70a7123a1219b88fec7374620711213d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 0c | 2,850$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 291 | 27.5%80 W · 211 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Yes | 5c | 2,557$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Yes | 4c | 2,515$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…a64fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,382$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.11 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Yes | 6c | 2,125$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Yes | 6c | 1,910$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.6 | 298 | 58.4%174 W · 124 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Yes | 5c | 1,521$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 608 | 38.2%232 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,455$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 75 | 9.3%7 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…a08abacked Yes | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked Yes | 5c | 1,125$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c6…910ebacked Yes | 7c | 845.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 546.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 162 | 35.8%58 W · 104 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…463abacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 5c | 494.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5994…4273backed Yes | 6c | 467.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Yes | 3c | 452.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…5f4fbacked Yes | 11c | 439.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 11c | 366.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 182 | 61%111 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed Yes | 6c | 313.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bc…13cfbacked Yes | 5c | 288.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…5817backed Yes | 6c | 284.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…e44dbacked Yes | 7c | 269.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…30e7backed Yes | 10c | 243.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 180 | 42.2%76 W · 104 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 6c | 235.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…294abacked Yes | 8c | 222.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…5943backed Yes | 7c | 217.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f58…254cbacked Yes | 7c | 168.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 7c | 165$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 8c | 141.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc5…09bdbacked Yes | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58a…b840backed Yes | 10c | 118.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…2379backed Yes | 9c | 113.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7344…98f6backed Yes | 10c | 112.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…e3d1backed Yes | 11c | 94.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natus Vincere win IEM Rio 2026?this page
- Will 3DMAX win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Aurora win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will FURIA win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Falcons win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will G2 win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Gentle Mates win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will HOTU win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Legacy win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will MOUZ win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Passion UA win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will RED Canids win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Team Liquid win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Team Spirit win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.