CS2 · resolved market
Will FURIA win IEM Rio 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf93b610c00a31e853ca42851aebb2221923ce50ac79b43d845971b3e9f66ba7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Yes | 21c | 100,000$21,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,000 | 392 | 49%192 W · 200 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked No | 79c | 88,756$70,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,638.7 | 756 | 52.6%398 W · 358 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed No | 79c | 13,709$10,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,930.91 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…8b14backed Yes | 9c | 5,873$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.3 | 367 | 42.8%157 W · 210 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4189backed Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 334 | 52.1%174 W · 160 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b33…9b98backed Yes | 18c | 2,981$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.36 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 291 | 27.5%80 W · 211 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9330…170abacked Yes | 11c | 1,779$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f0…d345backed Yes | 7c | 1,629$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 14c | 1,336$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.24 | 162 | 35.8%58 W · 104 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,255$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 148 | 20.3%30 W · 118 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…247fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,111$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…1135backed Yes | 11c | 945.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Yes | 8c | 944.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 298 | 58.4%174 W · 124 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93df…7306backed Yes | 15c | 682.47$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked Yes | 22c | 670.93$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.37 | 789 | 63.8%503 W · 286 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 15c | 628.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 146 | 61.6%90 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 12c | 599.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 608 | 48%292 W · 316 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacfa…de7cbacked Yes | 15c | 599.97$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc742…2840backed Yes | 9c | 595.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…49c6backed Yes | 16c | 575.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…a08abacked Yes | 12c | 542.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…ddd6backed Yes | 14c | 501.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 21c | 497.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…5704backed Yes | 21c | 444.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…1c37backed Yes | 14c | 422.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa874…a8fabacked Yes | 13c | 345.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Yes | 9c | 333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 12c | 318.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…4bd5backed Yes | 12c | 316.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…63d4backed Yes | 20c | 299.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf064…54a4backed Yes | 12c | 269.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3e…8b58backed Yes | 13c | 251.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 248.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52c5…5878backed No | 79c | 246.44$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 4c | 230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 194 | 23.7%46 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf098…862cbacked Yes | 21c | 224.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…e44dbacked Yes | 9c | 205.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Yes | 9c | 199$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788a…a3f7backed Yes | 17c | 191.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…f946backed Yes | 14c | 189.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…5817backed Yes | 9c | 177.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…a473backed Yes | 15c | 177.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…5eddbacked Yes | 14c | 169.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ba…4f18backed Yes | 13c | 153.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed No | 79c | 149.11$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb27…ff32backed No | 79c | 148.11$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc5…09bdbacked Yes | 13c | 148.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Yes | 17c | 146.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1182…b6bbbacked Yes | 17c | 144.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb10…a3a2backed Yes | 22c | 134.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Yes | 11c | 132.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Yes | 15c | 126.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9a…1e85backed Yes | 15c | 123.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf26…0416backed Yes | 15c | 122.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf7…294abacked Yes | 19c | 119.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d4…79bcbacked Yes | 16c | 118.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…bc0ebacked Yes | 21c | 112.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…e3d1backed Yes | 12c | 103.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 170 | 41.2%70 W · 100 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b3…6492backed Yes | 21c | 98.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Yes | 16c | 90.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 528 | 37.1%196 W · 332 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…3f90backed Yes | 15c | 77.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…0376backed Yes | 22c | 68.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 24c | 54.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked No | 80c | 49.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…2578backed No | 80c | 49.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…11d8backed No | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed No | 80c | 37.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 371 | 57.7%214 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5054…0aafbacked No | 79c | 36.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…2065backed No | 80c | 30.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…d54ebacked No | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…56e3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 338 | 69.8%236 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761f…80aebacked No | 80c | 14.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…3d33backed No | 78c | 14.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 422 | 74.2%313 W · 109 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FURIA win IEM Rio 2026?this page
- Will 3DMAX win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Aurora win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Falcons win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will G2 win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Gentle Mates win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will HOTU win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Legacy win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will MOUZ win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Natus Vincere win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Passion UA win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will RED Canids win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Team Liquid win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Team Spirit win IEM Rio 2026?No won
- Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.