TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group C

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Entropyof Entropy, Donstu Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddc3…029cbacked Entropy57c10,910$6,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,697.7392456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Donstu Esports46c3,705$1,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,710.695,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Donstu Esports70c3,343$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,340.375,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked Donstu Esports42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.9943751.7%226 W · 211 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Donstu Esports60c2,210$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,315.7629449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Entropy56c2,058$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.0424551.8%127 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8efe…6704backed Entropy79c2,000$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.7220562.4%128 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Donstu Esports40c1,836$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.682,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Entropy33c1,805$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.0716036.3%58 W · 102 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Entropy32c1,661$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.6716749.1%82 W · 85 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Donstu Esports44c1,290$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.1740137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Entropy38c1,155$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.0219340.4%78 W · 115 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Entropy58c1,082$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.2535739.2%140 W · 217 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd761…56e3backed Entropy48c1,064$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.7224746.2%114 W · 133 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ea…863dbacked Entropy42c1,013$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.936540%26 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Donstu Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Donstu Esports51c968.19$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.2452750.7%267 W · 260 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Donstu Esports34c940.6$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.987330.9%270 W · 603 L-62.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed Donstu Esports48c825.01$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.7240542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Entropy33c765.34$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.2177351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Donstu Esports50c754.63$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.9821045.7%96 W · 114 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3d…13dabacked Entropy28c747.99$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.839732%31 W · 66 L-11.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Donstu Esports68c728.42$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.2765346.9%306 W · 347 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6384…3d67backed Entropy68c724.55$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.023663.9%23 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Donstu Esports63c714.27$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.6259055.3%326 W · 264 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Entropy52c671.94$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.391,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Donstu Esports70c660.71$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.011,99853.7%1,073 W · 925 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1fe…e21fbacked Donstu Esports45c612.5$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.6312448.4%60 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…8f43backed Donstu Esports38c579$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0213339.8%53 W · 80 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd92c…dd9abacked Donstu Esports43c567.29$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.785246.2%24 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2957…b26abacked Donstu Esports65c528.27$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34322838.2%87 W · 141 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Entropy46c487.7$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.252,33042.5%991 W · 1,339 L-71.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba23…cd7ebacked Donstu Esports65c464.99$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.2415455.2%85 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Donstu Esports43c462.32$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.092,11942.9%909 W · 1,210 L-66.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Donstu Esports52c459.56$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.7674633.4%249 W · 497 L-48.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked Donstu Esports57c454.52$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.726554.3%144 W · 121 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b8…8712backed Donstu Esports59c424.41$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.564751.1%24 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Donstu Esports72c421.23$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.1350051.4%257 W · 243 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Entropy36c411.01$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5132139.9%128 W · 193 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Entropy37c400$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25120643.2%89 W · 117 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Donstu Esports46c398.94$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.613,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Entropy26c384.88$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.423,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked Donstu Esports69c373.35$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.459549.5%47 W · 48 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf709…7697backed Donstu Esports11c371.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403411.8%4 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Entropy39c365.82$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.9875438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked Donstu Esports61c361.52$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2196744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Donstu Esports66c360.72$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.642,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ae…df49backed Donstu Esports58c358.32$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.937944.3%35 W · 44 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Donstu Esports45c351.58$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.881,31851.7%682 W · 636 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4a…c078backed Donstu Esports51c326.34$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1312271.3%87 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf868…3b45backed Donstu Esports51c305$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.5511841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed Entropy44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16812627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddf1…d4aebacked Donstu Esports59c289.9$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.045966.1%39 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Entropy28c284.03$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.111,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Donstu Esports71c274.39$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951,60552.6%845 W · 760 L+57.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Entropy30c269.91$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.942,52043%1,084 W · 1,436 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Entropy43c253.12$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.822,45434.4%845 W · 1,609 L-189.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed Entropy41c245.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.912157.9%70 W · 51 L+7.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3265…cf6bbacked Entropy26c235.59$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.3414331.5%45 W · 98 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf7…9907backed Entropy32c219.59$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.422240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed Donstu Esports62c218.82$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.629944.4%44 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0193…bad1backed Entropy27c218.25$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.253438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14b…4ff2backed Donstu Esports58c215$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.55825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked Donstu Esports42c212.47$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4517055.3%94 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1405…9882backed Donstu Esports72c209.65$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.854042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9051…32d2backed Donstu Esports37c208.12$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7630859.1%182 W · 126 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Donstu Esports46c202.25$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.593,88836.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L-197.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Entropy31c202.17$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.4938739.5%153 W · 234 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef9a…f58dbacked Donstu Esports69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3657…a0a7backed Entropy31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x195a…f955backed Entropy31c200$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.143100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+164.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6a9…769ebacked Donstu Esports69c200$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed Donstu Esports68c199.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9925851.9%134 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a0d…32e1backed Entropy39c197.36$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.883132.3%10 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Entropy42c188.38$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.1659732.2%192 W · 405 L-49.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-38.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Entropy36c187.47$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.1438841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfe…9483backed Donstu Esports38c180$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.63727%10 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Donstu Esports65c174.12$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.826546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1242…9077backed Donstu Esports53c173.58$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9211546.1%53 W · 62 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed Donstu Esports67c171.11$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8730841.6%128 W · 180 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91c7…24fabacked Entropy46c170.2$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.23145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…8d97backed Donstu Esports56c169.34$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8332662%202 W · 124 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c6c…5e36backed Donstu Esports49c165.18$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6723956.5%135 W · 104 L+15.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Entropy63c160.39$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.752,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Donstu Esports42c136.84$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.491,83041.6%762 W · 1,068 L-68.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Donstu Esports22c130.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2489046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Entropy37c128$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6439145.8%179 W · 212 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Donstu Esports35c127.1$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.612,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Entropy34c126.08$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.821,06242.2%448 W · 614 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6986…3369backed Donstu Esports73c125.2$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.739849%48 W · 50 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Donstu Esports11c123.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353034.7%184 W · 346 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Entropy57c122.54$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2215637.2%58 W · 98 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Entropy41c121$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3925643.4%111 W · 145 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Entropy40c112.52$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7419342.5%82 W · 111 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55e9…bf34backed Entropy50c109.85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3623644.1%104 W · 132 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee22…7054backed Donstu Esports61c109.23$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3711844.1%52 W · 66 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Entropy29c108.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3763341.9%265 W · 368 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Donstu Esports42c108.96$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6619851.5%102 W · 96 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Donstu Esports45c108.18$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.684257.1%24 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50f…8e7cbacked Entropy62c103.31$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4412100%12 W · 0 L+4.2wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.