NFL · resolved market
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87852d9ff833357873f3b47891c082bb2fce313d6dc89cc4ddffbefbcc16e43f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 40c | 15,425$6,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,234.88 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 60c | 14,385$8,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,567.14 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 60c | 5,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.99 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 42c | 2,982$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.03 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 59c | 2,500$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 41c | 2,276$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.47 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…b0b3backed Over | 42c | 1,741$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 42c | 1,720$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.6 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 41c | 1,614$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.26 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 42c | 1,108$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 42c | 1,054$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.32 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Under | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 59c | 429.45$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.69 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 43c | 418.6$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.6 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 43c | 209.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 59c | 185.51$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 59c | 126$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 49c | 103.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…b4b0backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…9387backed Under | 60c | 81.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 41c | 76.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…bdbebacked Under | 55c | 57.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Over | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked Over | 41c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 70.8%46 W · 19 L | +11.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…b793backed Over | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…9e08backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…17f3backed Over | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 47.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rams (-5.5)Panthers won
- Rams vs. PanthersRams won
- Rams vs. Panthers: 1H MoneylineRams won
- Rams vs. Panthers: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 44.5Over won
- Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 46.5Over won
- Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 49.5Over won
- Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Rams (-10.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Rams (-11.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Rams (-14.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Rams (-6.5)Panthers won
- Spread: Rams (-7.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.