NFL · resolved market

Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 49.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0773980a0b5e075299e729aefff8f3e86db63e3b50d7cdacd8998891ec4be679

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $22,812
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,812 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	64c	9,970$6,380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,379.87	770	52.7%406 W · 364 L	+24.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over	36c	5,196$1,871 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,325.44	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	56c	3,861$2,170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,690.59	502	42.4%213 W · 289 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	44c	3,410$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500.36	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	36c	3,128$1,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,001.52	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	36c	2,900$1,052 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,847.88	314	50%157 W · 157 L	+9.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under	64c	2,499$1,599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,599.36	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Over	35c	1,540$539 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,001	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under	45c	1,227$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.01	120	55.8%67 W · 53 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+15%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	64c	650$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416	192	40.1%77 W · 115 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfeeb…3f5bbacked Under	32c	348.1$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.27	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Over	40c	332$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.42	202	38.6%78 W · 124 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over	56c	268$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.92	207	57.5%119 W · 88 L	+17.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7227…5285backed Over	38c	200$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c6c…ce09backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	149	51%76 W · 73 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Under	47c	183.62$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.65	148	44.6%66 W · 82 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Over	74c	154.86$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.86	105	48.6%51 W · 54 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Over	71c	151.89$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.79	294	39.5%116 W · 178 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over	75c	141$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.76	196	51.5%101 W · 95 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64cc…ad9dbacked Over	37c	135.92$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.63	60	55%33 W · 27 L	+6.3wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacd8…6633backed Under	16c	133.32$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed Over	55c	128.67$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.97	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	44c	122.23$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.34	320	43.8%140 W · 180 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over	72c	121.82$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.25	127	48%61 W · 66 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1841…c63dbacked Over	38c	105.26$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.26	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over	35c	100$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over	38c	99$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.38	245	47.8%117 W · 128 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under	64c	74$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.36	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c9…9764backed Over	56c	71.95$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.66	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	37c	69$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.77	163	49.7%81 W · 82 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cd…b74cbacked Under	24c	55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	191	24.6%47 W · 144 L	-11.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a0f…6715backed Over	70c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Under	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x884c…851fbacked Under	57c	45.67$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.18	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f96…87f3backed Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-4.4wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x886d…ba65backed Under	28c	40.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Under	60c	40$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.09	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-5.5wins	-0.15per pick	53cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbc23…c4edbacked Over	66c	39.69$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.69	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under	63c	39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.57	315	43.2%136 W · 179 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	65c	33.32$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.66	65	70.8%46 W · 19 L	+11.6wins	+0.18per pick	53cpaid	+35.2%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7f89…b87ebacked Over	55c	29.05$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.07	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.0wins	+0.15per pick	54cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked Over	47c	23.3$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.41	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf48c…e4dabacked Over	56c	22.21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.83	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.7wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6834…67a5backed Over	55c	21.66$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Over	60c	20.57$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.32	18	77.8%14 W · 4 L	+4.0wins	+0.22per pick	55cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9a58…149dbacked Over	52c	20.36$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.69	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-2.7wins	-0.16per pick	51cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97b8…0f5dbacked Under	62c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.18per pick	56cpaid	-33%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	77c	14.08$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.17	342	47.4%162 W · 180 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 49.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event