NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x882ce47ec68d34c8e576d43b27248da508676cfae096bd44b7facaad67681c76

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,251
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,251 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Under	56c	9,656$5,402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,254.23	200	55%110 W · 90 L	+7.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Over	0c	6,008$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.35	127	27.6%35 W · 92 L	-6.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Over	42c	5,000$2,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,100	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	+5.1wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	47c	2,544$1,196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,348.43	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over	53c	2,342$1,242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,241.58	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Under	58c	2,070$1,201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$869.4	1,085	63.6%690 W · 395 L	+86.7wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	58c	1,766$1,024 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$741.82	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	39c	1,644$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.68	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	5c	1,444$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.11	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	44c	1,200$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Over	40c	1,031$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.27	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Over	42c	980.05$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.62	246	50%123 W · 123 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Under	61c	700$427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273	226	48.2%109 W · 117 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	44c	515.79$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.01	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	44c	454.55$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Over	44c	306.82$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	256	42.6%109 W · 147 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under	60c	290$174 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116	249	55.8%139 W · 110 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Over	51c	256.86$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	139	51.1%71 W · 68 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	60c	235$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	346	45.7%158 W · 188 L	+12.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed Over	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	126	50%63 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Over	44c	204.55$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	334	42.8%143 W · 191 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-13%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	40c	200$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf2…740bbacked Over	46c	195.65$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	180	40.6%73 W · 107 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x437b…0ba4backed Under	54c	186$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.56	165	47.3%78 W · 87 L	-8.8wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7289…8d16backed Under	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	133	54.1%72 W · 61 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd54…3ffebacked Under	61c	163.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.93	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Under	58c	156.08$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.55	87	49.4%43 W · 44 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	55c	127.27$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.27	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3205…d8ccbacked Under	57c	122$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.46	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Over	44c	113.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	332	46.1%153 W · 179 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd95…52fbbacked Under	55c	100.33$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.15	139	38.8%54 W · 85 L	-14.7wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9c13…99b7backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	477	38.2%182 W · 295 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Under	58c	97.62$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+61.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Under	61c	95.08$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.08	625	46.9%293 W · 332 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Under	57c	89$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.97	129	47.3%61 W · 68 L	+12.3wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Under	60c	78.33$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.33	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Over	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed Under	59c	68$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.88	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	42c	67.83$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.34	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c56…269fbacked Under	60c	66.67$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.67	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	57cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4256…4d16backed Over	42c	63$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.46	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Over	42c	59.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-8.3wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfdbe…1287backed Over	43c	59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x334f…0d32backed Under	56c	54.99$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.19	136	52.2%71 W · 65 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Under	58c	53$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.26	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…1b47backed Under	61c	50.82$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.82	90	50%45 W · 45 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0854…fb45backed Over	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	47cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd253…14d9backed Over	42c	48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under	58c	44.69$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.96	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Over	46c	43.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	225	56.9%128 W · 97 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72df…42f6backed Over	42c	41$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.22	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6098…d746backed Over	42c	41$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.22	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-9.8wins	-0.35per pick	49cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	30-0.18 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Over	34c	40.77$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.2	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9afc…e80dbacked Under	60c	35.78$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.34	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e7…51d6backed Over	42c	35.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	71	45.1%32 W · 39 L	-5.8wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over	45c	35.65$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.04	661	43.4%287 W · 374 L	-32.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9331…0951backed Under	60c	33.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce3e…2f24backed Under	62c	32.26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.26	250	56.8%142 W · 108 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb59a…e730backed Over	42c	32$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-5.3wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	37c	31.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cc…24adbacked Over	41c	31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.71	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x56d2…7afcbacked Over	43c	30.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	+6.8wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Over	44c	29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	379	49.3%187 W · 192 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a59…e94cbacked Under	60c	25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf9…142bbacked Over	42c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb990…3d1cbacked Over	41c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	45c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Under	60c	19.89$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.89	99	57.6%57 W · 42 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5this page
Knicks vs. PistonsPistons won
Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Under won
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Pistons won
Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Pistons won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event