NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31958407852da8ad42b8cdb25a11f244ac65dc722f597ba59ad6cfce615f69aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $586,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $586,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $586,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Pistons | 46c | 541,929$247,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294,012.88 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Knicks | 54c | 397,495$214,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214,647.32 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Knicks | 55c | 112,321$61,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,776.73 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks | 55c | 15,637$8,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,600.44 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks | 55c | 11,909$6,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,530.67 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pistons | 48c | 11,656$5,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,076.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 50c | 6,341$3,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Knicks | 54c | 5,300$2,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.86 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Pistons | 46c | 4,419$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,386.37 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…4e7cbacked Knicks | 56c | 3,515$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.32 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…5c2fbacked Pistons | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Knicks | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 433 | 48.5%210 W · 223 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 44c | 1,861$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Pistons | 46c | 1,463$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.04 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pistons | 43c | 1,132$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.11 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Knicks | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.21 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Pistons | 45c | 977.78$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.78 | 286 | 49.7%142 W · 144 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Pistons | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.57 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pistons | 52c | 846.26$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.28 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pistons | 44c | 833.6$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.82 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Pistons | 46c | 700$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.25 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Knicks | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Pistons | 46c | 562.98$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.01 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…576abacked Knicks | 55c | 507.53$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Pistons | 44c | 451.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.96 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Knicks | 56c | 354.64$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.6 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Knicks | 6c | 304.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…a870backed Knicks | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Knicks | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Knicks | 55c | 247.78$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf891…d3b6backed Pistons | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Knicks | 55c | 179.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Knicks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Pistons | 46c | 160$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed Knicks | 56c | 157.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 383 | 50.4%193 W · 190 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e42…8f95backed Knicks | 56c | 144.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…45d9backed Knicks | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 343 | 42.9%147 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Pistons | 45c | 110.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99af…fedcbacked Pistons | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Knicks | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…85b4backed Knicks | 56c | 98.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Knicks | 15c | 89.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ecfabacked Knicks | 56c | 86.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Knicks | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed Knicks | 56c | 68.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked Pistons | 46c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…569fbacked Knicks | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Knicks | 26c | 44.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Knicks | 52c | 43.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b7…667abacked Pistons | 45c | 42.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…4863backed Pistons | 54c | 42.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…2bdcbacked Knicks | 57c | 40.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +42%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Knicks | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Pistons | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Knicks | 35c | 33.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…8d15backed Pistons | 53c | 30.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6931…89cabacked Knicks | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…7f18backed Knicks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Pistons | 46c | 28.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…c21dbacked Knicks | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Knicks | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 47.1%90 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cf…faaabacked Pistons | 45c | 26.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Knicks | 52c | 24.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…d05dbacked Knicks | 49c | 23.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc097…3393backed Pistons | 47c | 23.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a83…3453backed Knicks | 56c | 22.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…666cbacked Pistons | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76e…caa5backed Knicks | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…848fbacked Pistons | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41bf…edffbacked Pistons | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd0…732cbacked Knicks | 56c | 19.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Knicks | 55c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Pistons | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-1.5)this page
- Knicks vs. PistonsPistons won
- Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 233.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.