WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89c4fb0150e8d68afb37300606c5c6c3fee5a3c0fecf29ccacc5de179f41ee87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Lynxof Minnesota Lynx, Golden State Valkyries
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 54c | 3,947$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.68 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Golden State Valkyries | 8c | 2,018$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.02 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 1,969$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.66 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 1,638$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.17 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 1,434$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.68 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 1,310$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.97 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 849.97$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.28 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 399.26$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 287.86$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 277.77$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.44 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 240.74$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.18 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -13.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 180.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 56c | 178.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 45c | 161.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Minnesota Lynx | 57c | 154.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 55c | 148$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Minnesota Lynx | 54c | 119.62$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Minnesota Lynx | 62c | 92.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 81.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 30.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 29.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Golden State Valkyries | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…b41fbacked Minnesota Lynx | 56c | 23.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 22.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 22.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Minnesota Lynx | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Minnesota Lynx | 54c | 21.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Minnesota Lynx | 57c | 17.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State ValkyriesMinnesota Lynx won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5Under won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5Under won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5Under won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5Under won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5Under won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5Under won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.