La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a270e88db14083d72703d4369e3aa83d3c23f1bfe43c00d2ac78ed94d7e92a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bf5…0144backed Over | 55c | 4,005$2,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 54cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 42c | 3,656$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.81 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 77c | 1,725$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…d291backed Over | 70c | 1,600$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Under | 56c | 1,147$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.32 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 75c | 1,041$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 958.27$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.53 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 815.78$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.39 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…85bbbacked Over | 62c | 807.27$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.76 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 647.15$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.44 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 57c | 450$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 43c | 416.6$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.46 | 75 | 73.3%55 W · 20 L | +20.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Over | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 128 | 75%96 W · 32 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 235.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 24c | 196.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 185 | 51.9%96 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 77c | 180.66$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 70c | 143.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…102cbacked Over | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 37c | 124.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over | 77c | 117$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Over | 76c | 106.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 130 | 70.8%92 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Under | 57c | 105.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 44c | 94$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 24c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 31c | 86.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 83.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 421 | 58%244 W · 177 L | +29.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Over | 52c | 83.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 24c | 69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Over | 46c | 68.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…ead7backed Over | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Under | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 75c | 47.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd283…51ecbacked Under | 24c | 45.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 38c | 44.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 147 | 38.8%57 W · 90 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…c9d1backed Over | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 58c | 31.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Over | 53c | 28.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 76c | 22.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Over | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.