Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon Final – Will Swiatek win by 4+ games?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b88dd09e7c355c326e83b2fe1c628e9b6446fdcbad8bdb2d38dcafb552c4493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0344…a65ebacked Yes | 56c | 6,057$3,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,667.14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 44c | 5,832$2,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.22 | 158 | 32.9%52 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…6e7abacked Yes | 57c | 1,801$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.74 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3210…5c4ebacked No | 45c | 1,476$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.69 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 45c | 1,357$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.44 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 62c | 828.97$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.01 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…b28abacked No | 29c | 800$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked No | 45c | 799.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Yes | 55c | 728.3$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.3 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 53c | 728.29$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.3 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 38c | 628.97$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.01 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed No | 17c | 609.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…9734backed No | 47c | 569.89$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 55c | 530.11$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.55 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 59c | 483.7$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.12 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed No | 42c | 458.05$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.38 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…7505backed Yes | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 54c | 237.18$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed No | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed No | 46c | 176.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 57c | 122.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…637bbacked No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 43c | 106$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 55c | 102.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 44c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed No | 43c | 74.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Yes | 54c | 41.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed No | 46c | 25.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.